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1、Bubbles:SomePerspectives(andLooseTalk)fromHistoryMaureenO’HaraJohnsonGraduateSchoolofManagement,CornellUniversityBubblesareatopicofgreatimportanceandgreatcontroversy.Thispaperdiscussesalter-nativeperspectivesontheeconomicmeaningandoriginofbubbles.Drawingonhistoricalapproaches
2、tobubbles,thisarticlesetsoutataxonomyofapproachesusedtoexplainthenatureofbubbles.Thepaperalsoconsidersissuesconnectedwiththescientificthinkingsurroundingbubbles.(JELG12,B0,E30)WhentheconferenceorganizersaskedmetogiveashortlunchtalkonthetopicDownloadedfromofbubbles,myfirstrespon
3、sewastodecline.Thisreticencestemmednotfromalackofinterestonmypart,butratherfromasinkingfeelingthatanysuchtalkwasdoomedfromthestart.Iknewthecauseofthisforeboding.Severalyearsrfs.oxfordjournals.orgago,IorganizedtheAFAmeetingsandhadtheprivilegeofputtingtogetherwhatturnedouttobet
4、helastProceedingsissue.AmongthepapersIincludedintheissuewasananalysisbyJayRitterandIvoWelchofIPObehavioroverthe1990s.1Shortlyaftertheissueappeared,Iwascopiedonane-mailwrittenatUniversityofNewSouthWalesonAugust15,2011byaveryseniorfinancepersontohisdepartmentalcolleagues.Whileth
5、emeritsofthespecificarticleseemednottobeinquestion,theauthorofthee-mailwasiratethataneditorwouldallowsuchloosetalkandunscientificthinkingtoappearinamajorfinancejournal.Whatwasthisloosetalkandunscientificthinkingthatsooutragedourcolleague?Itwastheuseoftheword“bubble”todescribetheb
6、ehaviorofNasdaqstockpricesoverthisperiod.Howcan“bubble”triggersuchastrongreaction?Certainly,itcaughtmebysurprise,butaquickreviewofsomehistoryintheareasuggeststhatbubbleshavelongplayedto“mixedreviews”intheeconomicsandfinanceliteratures.Thefocusofmytalktodayisonthisissueofbubble
7、s.Myintentistogiveaveryshortreviewofthethinkingonbubblesovertime,andalongthewayIwillalsotakeashortsojourntoconsidertheevolvingnatureofscientificthinkinginthisregard.Mycommentsshouldnotbeviewedasasurveyofcurrentworkonbubbles(formoreformaldiscussionandreview,seeBrunnermeier,2001
8、;2007),butrathermoreofanattempttoprovidesomeperspectiveonhowIwouldli