前景理论 Microsoft Word 文档

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1、Handbook > Decision-MakingUnderUncertainty > AdvancedTopics >ProspectTheory-IntroductionPrinterFriendlyDecision-MakingUnderUncertainty-AdvancedTopicsAnIntroductiontoProspectTheoryOvertime,researchershavebecomealltooawareofthelimitationsofexpectedutilitytheory,especiallythoseraisedbythe St.P

2、etersburg, Allais,and Ellsberg paradoxes.Asaresult,numerousalternativetheorieshavebeendevelopedtoovercomethelimitationsofexpectedutilitytheorywithoutlosingitsexplanatorypower.Prospecttheory,developedbyDanielKahnemanandAmosTverskyisperhapsthemostwell-knownofthesealternativetheories.Thissecti

3、oncoversthefollowingtopics:1.Motivation--certainty,reflection,andisloationeffects2.Theeditingandevaluationphases3.Propertiesofthevalueandweightingfunctions4.CumulativeProspectTheoryMotivationIn1979,DanielKahnemanandAmosTverskyconductedaseriesofthoughtexperimentstestingtheAllaisParadox inIsr

4、ael,attheUniversityofStockholm,andattheUniversityofMichigan.Everywhere,theresultsfollowedthesamepattern.Theproblemwasevenframedinmanydifferentways,withprizesinvolvingmoney,vacations,andsoon.Ineachcase,the substitutionaxiom wasviolatedinexactlythesamepattern.KahnemannandTverskycalledthispatt

5、ernthe certaintyeffect -meaning,peopleoverweightoutcomesthatarecertain,relativetooutcomeswhicharemerelyprobable. Usingtheterm"prospect"torefertowhatwehavesofarcalledlotteriesorgambles,(i.e.asetofoutcomeswithaprobabilitydistributionoverthem),KahnemannandTverskyalsostatethatwherewinningisposs

6、iblebutnotprobable,i.e.whenprobabilitiesarelow,mostpeoplechoosetheprospectthatoffersthelargergain.Thisisillustratedbytheseconddecisionstageinthe AllaisParadox. Moregenerally,ifxandyareoutcomes;0

7、retheterm(outcome,probability)referstoa prospect. TheReflectionEffectKahnemannandTverskyalsofoundstrongevidenceofwhattheyreferredtoasthe reflectioneffect.Toillustrate: ImagineanAllaisParadox-typeproblem,framedinthefollowingway.Youmustchoosebetweenoneofth