控股权 Controlling interest

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1、ControllinginterestBeforethefinancialcrisislifewassimpleforcentralbankers.Theyhadaclearmission:temperboomsandbuststomaintainlowandstableinflation.Andtheyhadaseeminglyeffectivemeanstoachievethat:nudgeakeyshort-terminterestrateuptodiscourageborrowing(andthuscheck

2、inflation),ordowntofosterloosercredit(andthusspurgrowthandemployment).Deftuseofthistechniquehadkepttheworldhummingalongsosmoothlyinthedecadesbeforethecrashthateconomistshaddeclareda“GreatModeration”intheeconomiccycle.Asitturnedout,however,themoderationwastransi

3、tory-andthecrashthatendeditunderminednotonlythecentralbankers’recordbutalsothemethodtheyreliedontopropupgrowth.Monetarypolicyhasbeeninastateofupheavaleversince.Therecessionthataccompaniedthecreditcrunchintheautumnof2008deliveredamassiveblowtodemand.Inresponsece

4、ntralbanksintherichworldslashedtheirbenchmarkinterestrates.Byearly2009manywereclosetozero,approachingwhateconomistscallthe“zerolowerbound”.Evenso,growthremainedelusive.Pushingratesbelowzero,thoughtechnicallypossible,wouldnothavehelped.Negativerateswouldmerelyha

5、veencourageddepositorstowithdrawtheirmoneyfrombanksandholditascash,onwhichtherateofreturn,atzero,wouldhavebeenhigher.Centralbanksinthedevelopedeconomiesfacedafrighteningcollapseinoutputandsoaringunemploymentwithoutrecoursetothetoolthathadbeenthemainstayofmoneta

6、rypolicymakingforageneration.Centralbankswerenotentirelyunpreparedforthischallenge.Inthe1990stheJapaneseeconomyhadslumpedfollowinganasset-pricecrash.FacingweakgrowthanddeflationtheBankofJapanhadslashedratestonear-zerobeforeembarkingonaseriesofexperimentswithunc

7、onventionalmonetarytools.AlthoughtheBankofJapan’sperformancewaswidelyconsidereddisappointing,ifnotanoutrightfailure,therichworld’scentralbanksbeganbydrawinguponitsplaybook.Unconventionalpolicyfallsintotwobroadcategories:assetpurchasesand“forwardguidance”.Assetp

8、urchasesareanaturalextensionofcentralbanks’moretypicalactivities.America’sFederalReserve,forinstance,haslongboughtTreasurybillsandotherbondswithshortmaturitiestoincreasethem