A domino theory of regionalism

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1、NEERWORKINGPAPERSERIESADOMINOTHEORYOFREGIONALISMRichardBaldwinWorkingPaperNo.4465NATIONALBUREAUOFECONOMICRESEARCH1050MassachusettsAvenueCambridge,MA02138September1993ThispaperispanofNBERsresearchprograminInternationalTradeandInvestmdnLAnyopinionsexpressedarethoseoftheauthor

2、andnotthoseoftheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.NBERWorkingPaper#4465September1993ADOMiNOTHEORYOFREGIONALISMABSTRACTRegionalliberalizationsweepstheglobelikewildfirewhilemultilateralnudetalksproceedataglacialpace.Whyarecountrieseagertoliberalizeregionallybutreluctanttodosom

3、ultilaterally?TheansweroftheGAIT-is-deadschoolisthatmultilateralismistoocumbersomeforcontemporarytradeissues,Thispaperproposesaverydifferentanswer.Recentregionalismiscausedbytwoidiosyncraticeventsmultipliedbyadominoeffect.Thetriggeringevents-theU.S-MexicoETAandtheEC's1992pr

4、ogrammeShadnothingtodowithGAIT'shealth.Thedominoeffectissimple.Politicalequilibria,whichbalanceanti-andpro-membershipforces,determinegovernments'stancesonregionalliberalization.Domesticexporterstoregionalblocsareapowerfulpro-membershipconstituency.Aneventthattriggerscloseri

5、ntegrationwithinanexistingblocharmstheprofitsofnonmemberexporters,thusstimulatingthemtoboosttheirpro-membershippoliticalactivity.Theextraactivityaltersthepoliticalequilibrium,leadingsomecountriestojoin.Thisenlargementfurtherharmsnonmemberexporterssincetheynowfaceadisadvanta

6、geinagreaternumberofmarkets.Thissecondroundeffectbringsforthmorepro-membershippoliticalactivityandafurtherenlargementofthebloc.Thenewpoliticalequilibriumismarkedbylargerregionaltradingblocs.Inthemeantimeregionalismappearstospreadlikewildfire.RichardBaldwinGraduateInstituteo

7、fInternationalStudies(GIIS)hA,ruedelaPaix1202GenevaSWITZERLANDandNEERI.IntroductionRegionalliberalizationissweepingtheworldtradingsystemlikewildfirewhilethemultilateralGATTtalksproceedataglacialpace.Thisconspicuouscontrastiscuriousenoughinitself,butitbecomesevenmoreremarkab

8、lewhenoneconsidersspecificissues.Despitemorethanahalf-decadeoftalks,allproposalsto