The Real Oil Problem

The Real Oil Problem

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时间:2019-07-04

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1、ENERGYBehindthemythsofanoilcrisisandanoilweaponisaveryrealdangerposedbyaclumsyandshortsightedcartel.TheRealOilProblemBYM.A.ADELMANMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyccordingto“conventionalendinganytimesoon.In1979andagainin2003,thecon-wisdom,”humanity’sneedforoilcan-sumingnationsmadeapublicuncondit

2、ionalsurrendertothenotbemetandagapwillsoonemergecurrentcartel.Theymayormaynotknowwhattheyaredoing.betweendemandandsupply.ThatgapToseetheharmthatopechasdoneandcancontinuetodo,willbroadenastheeconomiesofEurope,weneedtodispensewiththemythsaboutanoilgapandanoilAJapan,andseveralemergingnationsgrowweap

3、on.Oncewedothat,wewillbegintoseethatmanyoftheandincreasetheirenergyneeds.Theproblemsintheworldoilmarketaretheresultofthisshort-UnitedStatesisatthemercyofMiddleEasternexporterswhosightedcartel,aswellasthefailureofimporterstoseizeoppor-canusethe“oilweapon”tocrippletheU.S.economy.Unlesswetunitiestow

4、eakenit.increasedomesticoilproductionradicallyorcutconsumption,ornationslikeRussiaquicklyexploitrecentlydiscoveredoilISOILRUNNINGOUT?fields,theUnitedStateswillfinditselfinanoilcrisis.OilisnotthefirstfossilfuelthatconventionalwisdomhasButconventionalwisdom“knows”manythingsthatarenotidentifiedasnea

5、ringexhaustion.Evenbefore1800,theworrytrue.Thereisnot,andneverhasbeen,anoilcrisisorgap.OilinEuropewasthatcoal—thesupposedfoundationoftheirreservesarenotdwindling.TheMiddleEastdoesnothaveandgreatness—wouldrunout.Europeanproductionactuallydidhasneverhadany“oilweapon.”HowfastRussianoiloutputpeakin19

6、13,andisnearlynegligibletoday.Isthattheresultgrowsisofminorbutrealinterest.HowmuchgoestotheUnit-ofexhaustion?Hardly—therearebillionsoftonsintheedStatesorEuropeorJapan—oranywhereelse,forthatmat-groundinEurope.ButitwouldcosttoomuchfortheEuro-ter—isofnointerestbecauseithasnoeffectonpriceswepaypeanst

7、odigitout.Atapricethatwouldcovercost,thereisnoronthesecurityofsupply.nodemand.Hence,thebillionsoftonsofEuropeancoalareTherealproblemwefaceoveroildatesfromafter1970:aworthlessanduntouched.Theamountofamineralthatisinstro

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