经济学人_英文阅读_028

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1、InflationBeyondgoodsandpeopleJun5th2013,17:11byR.A.

2、WASHINGTON··TweetTHEdatasphereisburstingwithinflationindexes(inflationinflation?).TheBureauofLabourStatisticsprovidesconsumerandproducerpriceswhiletheBureauofEconomicAnalysisgivesusallmannerofdeflators.Thereareheadlineandcoreseries(thelatterstripp

3、ingoutespeciallyvolatileprices).Onecanlookatpriceindexesforpersonalconsumptionexpenditures(PCE),corePCE,"market-based"PCE,andcoremarket-basedPCE.Therearechainedindexes.TheClevelandFedcomputesupmedianand"16%trimmed-mean"CPI.Thesedifferentindexesprovideacheckoneachother,andareoftengoodathighlightingp

4、articularsortsoftrendsinthedata.AndnewresearchbyeconomistsattheNewYorkFedsuggestsanotherwayofchoppingupinflationfiguresthatlooksespeciallyinformative.Asitturnsout,goodspricesandservicespricestendtobehaveverydifferently,withimportantimplicationsformacroeconomicpolicy.ApostattheNewYorkFed'sLibertyStr

5、eetblogdiscussestheissue.Youcanseethedivergenceincoregoodsinflationandcoreservicesinflationinthechartbelow:Afewthingsstandout.Oneishowremarkablydifferenttheseriesare;goodsandservicespricesoccasionallymoveinoppositedirections.Anotherishowverylowgoodsinflationhasbeenformorethanadecade,onlyrarelystray

6、inganywherecloseto2%.Andthird,one'seyesaredrawntothecontrastingandunusualmovesfrom2008on.Thosecontrastingmovesareimportant,theresearcherssay,becausegoodsandservicespricesseemtoreacttodifferenteconomicimpulses:Wefindastrongrelationship(botheconomicallyandstatisticallyspeaking)betweencoreservicesinfl

7、ationandlong-terminflationexpectations.Thereisalsoanimportantnonlinearrelationshipbetweencoreservicesinflationandtheunemploymentgap,indicatingthattheimpactofchangesinlabormarketslackoncoreservicesinflationdependsonthelevelofslackitself.Forthecoregoodsinflationmodel,theresultssuggestaverydifferentse

8、toffactorsinfluencingthebehavioroftheseries.Wefindpersistenceintheseries,thatis,coregoodsinflationdependsonitsownpastvalue.Relativeimportpriceinflation—growthin(non-petroleum)importpriceslesscoregoodsinflat