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1、TheG20andtheworldeconomySomerecentstatistics,itistrue,offerglimmersofhope.Thelatestmanufacturingfigures,particularlyinAsia,hintatanendtotheimplosionofglobalindustrialproduction.InAmericaconsumerspendingisnolongerinfreefallandthehousingmarket,wherethetroub
2、lefirstbrokeout,showssomesignsofstabilising.InBritainmortgagelendingmayhavehitthebottom,consumersarealittlelessgloomyandmanufacturinglooksalittlelessterrible.Thesesliversofgoodnewshavehelpedstockmarketsrecoverfromtheirrecentnadirs.Buttheyshouldnotbeexagge
3、rated.Plainly,theriskslieonthedownside,asrisingunemploymentleadstoanewroundofspendingweaknessandcorporatedefaultscreatenewproblemsinthecreditmarkets.Worse,therecovery,whenitcomes,willbefeeble,astheoverindebtedrebuildtheirbalance-sheetsandexport-dependentc
4、ountriesreorienttheireconomiestowardsdomesticspending.TheOECDexpectsgrowthtostaywellbelowitstrendratein2010,wideningtherichworld'soutputgap-thedistancebetweentheeconomy'sactualandpotentialperformance-toanextraordinary8.5%ofGDP.Thatwouldpushjoblessratesint
5、odoubledigitsinmuchoftherichworldandleavemanycountriesperilouslyclosetodeflation.Facedwiththiscataclysm,policymakershavebeenfightingbackwiththebiggestandmostsynchronisedmacroeconomicstimulussincethesecondworldwar.Virtuallyeveryrichcountry,andmanyemergingo
6、nes,haveputtogetherfiscalstimuluspackages.Addintheautomaticimpactoflowertaxrevenuesandhigherjoblesspaymentsandtherichworld’budgetdeficitswilljumpbyaboutsixpercentagepointsofGDP.Thefirepowerofinternationalfinancialinstitutions,especiallytheIMF,isbeingboost
7、edtohelpthoseemergingeconomieswithnoroomtohelpthemselves.Governmentshavevowedtoresistadescentintoprotectionism.Threrhasbeensomebacksliding,butnosignofarepeatofthebeggar-thy-neighbourlunacyofthe1930s.Twoquestionsspringtothefore.Aretheseresponses,however,ex
8、traordinary,adequate?Andifindoubt,shouldprudentpolicymakerserrtowardsdoingtoomuchortoolittle?Atagloballevel,theanswerissurelythatboldnessbeatstimidity.Ofcoursetherearerisksinsoaringgovernmentdebtandswellingcentral-b
