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1、AsiaRetailBankingPracticeNext-generationretailbankinginChinaBuildingeighttransformationalcapabilitiesMarch2012JanBellensEmmanuelPitsilisJunXuAsiaRetailBankingPracticeNext-generationretailbankinginChinaBuildingeighttransformationalcapabilitiesMarch2012JanBellensEmmanuelPitsilisJunXuNext-generationre
2、tailbankinginChina5BuildingeighttransformationalcapabilitiesRapidbutunevengrowth,weakreturnRetailbankinginChinahasgrownatbreakneckspeedinthelastdecade.Duringtheperiod2000–10,retaildepositsgrewby4.5timesandloansbyastaggering17times.Productspercustomerhaveincreasedtofourfromjustaboveone.Allbankscombi
3、ned,therearemorethan200,000employeesdedicatedtoretailtodaycomparedwithalmostnonetenyearsago.Retailproductofferings,thetalentpool,channels,andinfrastructurehaveallgrowndramaticallyinscaleandquality.Moreexcitingdaysareahead.By2015,Chinawillbecomethesecond-largestretailbankingmarketintheworld,afterthe
4、UnitedStates.By2020,totalretailbankingrevenueisexpectedtoreach$280billion1ayearfrom$127billiontoday,newresearchfromMcKinsey&Companyshows(Exhibit1).Exhibit1Chinawillbecomethesecond-largestretailbankingmarketintheworldby2015,withanannualrevenuepoolofaround$280billionby2020.Revenueofretailbankingpost-
5、risk,top5countries$billion2011E2015E2020EUnitedUnitedUnited443602754StatesStatesStatesJapan141China1161China1279China1127Japan156Japan174Germany83Germany89Germany107UnitedUnitedUnited6388104KingdomKingdomKingdom1Chinaforecastbasedonconservativescenario.Source:McKinseyGlobalBankingPoolsChinaisadiver
6、semarket,though,andthehistoricandexpectedgrowthratesinretailbankingareunevenacrosscustomersegments,products,andgeographies.Ourresearchfindsthatwealthysegmentswillplayanevenmore1BasedonanexchangerateofUSDtoRMBof6.4in2011and5.4in2020fromGlobalInsight.6Exhibit2High-net-worthindividuals(HNWIs)andafflue
7、ntcustomerswillcontributealmosthalfofretailbankingrevenueby2020.Post-riskretailbankrevenuesbysegment,12010–20CAGR,32010–20RMBbillion,%%100%=5229141,49411HNWI15192215Affluent21252714Mass12affluent141312Mass2
