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1、MeasuringandManagingFederalFinancialRiskANationalBureauofEconomicResearchConferenceReportMeasuringandManagingFederalFinancialRiskEditedbyDeborahLucasTheUniversityofChicagoPressChicagoandLondonAtthetimethisworkwascompleted,DeborahLucaswastheDonaldC.ClarkHSBCProf
2、essorofConsumerFinanceattheKelloggSchoolofManagement,NorthwesternUniversity.SheiscurrentlyAssociateDirectorforFinancialAnalysisattheCongressionalBudgetOffice;onleavefromtheSloanSchoolofManagementattheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,wheresheisprofessoroffinance
3、;andaresearchassociateoftheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.TheUniversityofChicagoPress,Chicago60637TheUniversityofChicagoPress,Ltd.,London©2010bytheNationalBureauofEconomicResearchAllrightsreserved.Published2010PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica1918171615141312
4、111012345ISBN-13:978-0-226-49658-0(cloth)ISBN-10:0-226-49658-9(cloth)LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataMeasuringandmanagingfederalfinancialrisk/editedbyDeborahLucas.p.cm.—(NationalBureauofEconomicResearchconferencereport)ISBN-13:978-0-226-49658-0(har
5、dcover:alk.paper)ISBN-10:0-226-49658-9(hardcover:alk.paper)1.Financialrisk—UnitedStates—Congresses.2.Finance,Public—UnitedStates—Congresses.I.Lucas,Deborah.II.Series:NationalBureauofEconomicResearchconferencereport.HJ257.3.M432010352.40973—dc222009034562oThepap
6、erusedinthispublicationmeetstheminimumrequirementsoftheAmericanNationalStandardforInformationSciences—PermanenceofPaperforPrintedLibraryMaterials,ANSIZ39.48-1992.NationalBureauofEconomicResearchOfficersJohnS.Clarkeson,chairmanKellyHorak,controllerandassistantKath
7、leenB.Cooper,vice-chairmancorporatesecretaryJamesM.Poterba,presidentandchiefAlterraMilone,corporatesecretaryexecutiveofficerGerardineJohnson,assistantcorporateRobertMednick,treasurersecretaryDirectorsatLargePeterC.AldrichJessicaP.EinhornAliciaH.MunnellElizabethE.
8、BaileyMohamedEl-ErianRudolphA.OswaldRichardB.BernerJacobA.FrenkelRobertT.ParryJohnH.BiggsJudithM.GueronJamesM.PoterbaJohnS.ClarkesonRobertS.HamadaJohnS.ReedDonR.ConlanKarenN
