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1、March28,2014GlobalEconomicsGlobalRealEstateTrendsAdrienneWarren(416)866-4315adrienne.warren@scotiabank.comGlobalHousingRecoveryDeepensTherecoveryinglobalpropertymarketsisbecomingmoreentrenchedRealHousePricesandbroadlybased.AnimprovingeconomicoutlookcombinedwithChinahistoric
2、allylowborrowingcostsarebuoyingconfidenceinthesector,PeruColombianotwithstandingstillsoftlabourmarketsinmanyregions.InourlatestCanadaround-upofinternationalhouseprices,roughlytwo-thirdsofnationalAustraliaU.S.marketspostedrealannualpriceappreciationthroughtheendofIreland2013
3、,upfrom40%ayearearlier.Germany**SwitzerlandChileAmongadvancedeconomies,CanadacontinuestoholditsplacenearSwedenthetoprungsofoursurvey.Averageinflation-adjustedhousepricesThailandBrazilrose8%y/yinQ4.ThenationalaverageincreaseisskewedbyamixIndonesiaofsalesfavouringsomeofthecou
4、ntry’spriciestmarkets,butmostU.K.MexicocentrescontinuetopostmoderateannualpricegainsslightlySouthKoreaoutpacinginflation.FranceJapan*2013Q4,WeexpectthepaceofCanadianhousepricegrowthwillslowthisSpainy/y%chgRussiayear.SaleshavebeenweakeningsincelastfallashigherpricesIndiaItal
5、y*alongsidetoughermortgageruleserodedaffordability.Recent-1001020declinesinsomefixedmortgageratesmayprovidesometemporary*2013Q3**2013.Source:ScotiabankEconomicsrelief,althoughmodestlyhigherborrowingcostsarestillonthehorizonasglobalgrowthpicksup.Anemergingoversupplyofcondomi
6、niumsinseverallargeurbancentresalsorisksputtingdownwardpressureonprices.TheU.S.housingrecoveryhaslostsomemomentum.Affordability,whilestillgood,hasbeendentedbyhigherpricesandborrowingcosts.Meanwhile,tightcreditconditionsandlacklustrejobgrowthhaverestrictedthepooloffirst-time
7、buyers,whichremainswellbelownormallevels.Evenso,tightsupplycontinuestounderpinvaluations,withrealhousepricesup6%y/yinQ4.Fromacyclicalperspective,theU.S.housingexpansionhasfurthertogo.Improvingjobandincomegrowthshouldunderpinstrengtheningsalesthisyear,whilenewconstructionwil
8、lwidenthepooloflistings.InbothCanadaandtheUnitedStates,weexpectsomereleaseofweathe
