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1、Hume'sProblem:InductionandtheJustificationofBeliefColinHowsonoffersasolutiontooneofthecentral,unsolvedproblemsofWesternphilosophy,theproblemofinduction.Inthemid-eighteenthcenturyDavidHumearguedthatsuccessfulpredictiontellsusnothingaboutthetruthofthepr
2、edictingtheory.Nomatterhowmanyexperimentaltestsahypothesispasses,nothingcanbelegitimatelyinferredaboutitstruthorprobabletruth.Butphysicaltheoryroutinelypredictsthevaluesofobservablemagnitudestomanyplacesofdecimalsandwithinverysmallrangesoferror.Thecha
3、nceofthissortofpredictivesuccesswithoutatruetheoryseemssoremotethatthepossibilityshouldbedismissed.ThissuggeststhatHume'sargumentmustbewrong;butthereisstillnoconsensusonwhereexactlytheflawintheargumentlies.Howsonarguesthatthereisnoflaw,andexaminesthei
4、mplicationsofthisdisturbingconclusionfortherelationbetweenscienceanditsempiricalbase.endp.iendp.iiHume'sProblemInductionandtheJustificationofBeliefCLARENDONPRESS·OXFORD2000endp.iiiGreatClarendonStreet,Oxfordox26dpOxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentofth
5、eUniversityofOxfordItfurtherstheUniversity'sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholarship,andeducationbypublishingworldwideinOxfordNewYorkAucklandBangkokBuenosAiresCapeTownChennaiDaresSalaamDelhiHongKongIstanbulKarachiKolkataKualaLumpurMadridMelbourneMe
6、xicoCityMumbaiNairobiSãoPauloShanghaiTaipeiTokyoTorontoOxfordisaregisteredtrademarkofOxfordUniversityPressintheUKandincertainothercountriesPublishedintheUnitedStatesbyOxfordUniversityPressInc.,NewYork©ColinHowson2000Themoralrightsoftheauthorshavebeena
7、ssertedDatabaserightOxfordUniversityPress(maker)Firstpublished2000Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,withoutthepriorpermissioninwritingofOxfordUniversityPress,orasexpre
8、sslypermittedbylaw,orundertermsagreedwiththeappropriatereprographicsrightsorganization.EnquiriesconcerningreproductionoutsidethescopeoftheaboveshouldbesenttotheRightsDepartment,OxfordUniversityPress,attheaddressaboveYoumustnotcirculatethisbook
