20120824 Global_Research_Highlights_Investment_St

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1、GlobalResearchHighlightsInvestmentStrategyGlobal24August2012CodeRedArjunMehra(AJ)+16468553007Multi-AssetAnalystMLPF&S¢Limitedupsidefromherearjun.mehra@baml.comLastweek,wehighlightedthatequitieshavelimitedupsidefromcurrentlevels.CherylRowan+16468553105PortfolioSt

2、rategistLookingatourofficialforecastsforthemajorindices,theS&P500iswithin3%ofMLPF&Sour1450year-endtargetandtheRussell2000iswithin1.5%.Stockshaveheldcheryl.rowan@baml.comupwellthroughatoughearningsseasonandslowereconomicgrowth,bothintheInvestmentStrategyUSandglob

3、ally.ThisinverserelationshipbetweentheequitymarketsandMLPF&SeconomicfundamentalsisperhapsbestexplainedbytheBernankePut–investorsarelikelygivingtheFedthebenefitofthedoubtandpricinginQE3.Thisbegstheobviousquestion–whathappensiftheFeddisappoints?Topmacroreportsofth

4、eweekUSEconomicWeekly–EthanHarris2Riskofasell-offishighLiquidInsight–MichaelHanson3EconomistMichaelHansonpointsoutaninterestingcircularrelationshipbetweenEquityandQuantStrategy–SavitaSubramanian4thestockmarketandFedpolicy.TherearesomewhobelievetheFedwillnotEuroA

5、reaMacroViewpoint–AthanasiosVamvakidis5launchQE3solongasstockpricesremainhigh,yetthestockmarketishighRVStrategies–TeoLasarte6becauseitanticipatesQE3.ShouldtheFeddisappointattheSeptember12-13ChartTalk–StephenSuttmeier7Small-Cap/USEquityStrategy–SavitaSubramanian8

6、FOMCmeeting,theriskofastocksell-offishigh.S&P500supportonaGlobalEquityVolatilityInsights–BenjaminBowler9correctionisinthe1360-1325area.Additionalsupportisat1300-1250.AttentionwillbeontheJacksonHolesymposiumnextweektogetafeelfortheFed’stone.Topstockreportsofthewe

7、ekUnitedTechnologiesCorporation–RonaldJ.Epstein10MacrocatalystsincreasetheriskofacorrectionEquinix,Inc.–DavidW.Barden11SkyworksSolutions,Inc.–VivekArya12Ourstrategistsseeanunusuallyhighnumberofmacrocatalystsoverthenext3-6monthsthatcouldtakemarketslower.Weexpecte

8、conomicgrowthtodisappointinthesecondhalfoftheyearinanticipationofthefiscalcliff.ThiswouldexacerbateanyslowdownfromthedeepeningrecessioninEuropeanddeceleratinggrowthin