2013 Summer Market and Reliability Assessment

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1、Summer2013EnergyMarketandReliabilityAssessmentItemNo:A-4May16,2013KeyTakeawaysReservemarginsremainadequatewithoneexception.•Texasfacesincreasedriskwithextremeheat.SouthOrangeCountyandSanDiegofaceverytightcapacitysituationswithSanOnofreoffline.Highernaturalgaspricesshouldpredominan

2、tlyfavordispatchofcoalovernaturalgas.Forwardnaturalgaspricesreboundabove$4.00/MMBtuforthissummeranddriveincreaseinelectricforwards.ReserveMarginsAdequateinMostRegionsForecastDemandActualDemandForecastCapacity1000800GW600400200020032004200520062007200820092010201120122013Source:NERCW

3、indandSolarCapacity60504030TotalCapacityWindCapacity(GW)2010AvailableOnPeak0200820092010201120122013Source:NERCandSEIAEasternPlantOutagesandRetirementsScatteredretirementsofolderunitssincelastsummer.Additionalpotentialretirementsinnextfewyears.Planningcoordinatorsworkingtocoordina

4、tetransmissionupgrades,must-runagreements,etc.LowReserveMarginsinTexas75GWTypicalOutagesExtremeHeatWaveExtremeOutagesSource:ERCOTPeakLoad65GWAvailableCapacityMarketandReliabilityConcernsinLABasinandSanDiegoRegionNewGenerationLosAngelesTransmissionUpgradeVoltageSupport500kV230kVSanOno

5、freSanDiegoSource:EnergyVelocityandCAISOSouthOrangeCountyandSanDiegoCA•HighernaturalgaspricesPricepressure•Lowhydroproduction•Transmissionconstraints•Hottertemperatures•CapandTradePrice•SanOnofreUnit2pressureoperationRisingNaturalGasPricesShouldFavorDispatchofCoalPlants$7GasCoal$6Fut

6、ures$5$4$3($/MMBtu)$2AdjustedFuelPrice$1HistoricalPrices$0Source:DerivedfromNymexJan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul-13NaturalGasForwardPrices2011-2013$6201120122013$5$4$3$2$1FowardPrice($/MMBtu)$0TranscoZoneChicagoSumasSocalHenry6N

7、YSource:DerivedfromNymexClearportdataElectricForwardPrices2011-2013$70201120122013$60$50$40ElectricityPrices$302011-2013ForwardPrices($/MWh)$20$10ForwardPrice($/MWh)$0Source:DerivedfromICESummerOutlookSource:NOAAClimatePredictionServiceSource:NOAAIncreasedRelianceonNGandAlternativeRe

8、sourcesSumme