美国啤酒产业深度研究：长期趋势没有捷径可走

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1、10June2019Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchBeer&AlcoholicBeveragesDeepDiveonU.S.BeerResearchAnalystsKaumilGajrawala2123253227kaumil.gajrawala@credit-suisse.comSanjeetAujla442078880353sanjeet.aujla@credit-suisse.comPallaviBakshi2125388434pallavi.bakshi@credit-suisse.comTheoBrito21

2、23254637theo.brito@credit-suisse.comEvgenyKudinov442078881791evgeny.kudinov@credit-suisse.comINDUSTRYPRIMERNoQuickFixforLongTermTrends;WinnersStakingOutHigh-EndLeadership■Powerful,Long-termTrendsPointtoaShrinkingIndustry:AgenerationaldemographicshiftleavesnoquestionUSbeermarkettren

3、dsareunlikelytochangeinthemediumterm.Mainstreambrandsmakeup40%ofindustryvolumeandaredeclining~5%annually(called“Premium”intheU.S.).Thisisunlikelytochange.Weexamineadditionalsecularheadwinds:1)Consumersdrinkingless;2)Agenerationofsharelossestowine&spirits;3)Biggestbrewerswiththehigh

4、estexposuretothesegmentsdecliningthefastest;4)YoungdrinkerspreferencefornewerAlcBevoptions;5)Riseofalternativeaway-from-homedrinking(taprooms);6)Cannabissubstitutionrisk;and7)Debtlevelsstiflinginvestment.■LeadersStakedOutPocketsofGrowth:OpportunitiesinHigh-Endsegments,health&wellne

5、ssrelated-products,andM&Aoutsideofbeercanstillsupportmeaningfulgrowth.BostonBeer(growingFlavoredMaltBeverageexposure)andConstellationBrands(premierHigh-Endportfolio,firstmoverincannabis)holdcommandingleadsinthesegmentsdrivingallofthemarketgrowth.Inourview,anycompanythathasnotalread

6、yre-aligneditsportfoliowillfallfurtherbehindatanacceleratedrate.■OutperformonABI,STZ:WePreferUSRecoveryStory:OurtoppickinglobalbeerisAnheuser-BuschInBev(ABI)–duetoitsstrategytoevolvemoreurgentlyintheUStotheHigh-End(now22%ofvolume,27%revenue).Recentsignsarepositive,asgrowthintheHigh

7、-Endacceleratedto~8%,andtheregionshowedmodestsalesgrowthforthefirsttimein4yrs.WeestimatetheimpliedvaluationofABIN.Americaisata30%discounttoTAP(EV/NOPAT);sustained“badtobetter”momentumcansupportare-rating.Constellation(STZ)shoulddeliverhealthyorganicbeerrevs(+8%)andEPS(+12%)forNewCo

8、(post-winedivestiture),eve