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1、MaterialsandMethodsPrevalenceEstimatesCancersurvivorprevalenceasofJanuary1,2019,wasestimatedusingthePrevalenceIncidenceApproachModel,whichcalculatesprevalencefromcancerinci-denceandsurvivalandall-causemortality.4Incidenceandsurvivalweremodeledbycancertype
2、,sex,andagegroupusinginvasivecases(excepturinarybladder,whichincludedinsitucases)diagnosedfrom1975through2015fromthe9oldestregistriesinthepopulation-basedSurveillance,Epidemiology,andEndResults(SEER)program(2017submissiondata).Asitispossibleforanindividua
3、ltobediagnosedwithmorethanonecancer,forspecificcancersiteestimates,incidentcasesincludedthefirstprimaryforthespecificcancersitebetween1975and2015,whereastotalcancerprevalencewascalculatedusingthefirstprimarydiagnosedinthatperiod.Estimatesdonotdistinguishb
4、etweenindividualscurrentlyundergoinginitialtreatment,thosewithclinicalevidenceofresidualorrecurrentdisease,orthosewhoarelivingcancerfree.Mortalitydatafor1975through2015wereobtainedfromtheNationalCenterforHealthStatistics.Populationprojectionsfrom2016throu
5、gh2030wereobtainedfromtheUSCensusBureau.ProjectedUSincidenceandmor-talityfor2016to2030werecalculatedbyapplying5-yearaverageratesfor2011through2015totherespectiveUSpopulationprojectionsbyage,sex,race,andyear.Survival,incidence,andall-causemortalityrateswer
6、eassumedtobeconstantfrom2016through2030.2019CaseEstimatesThemethodforestimatingthenumberofnewUScan-cercasesin2019isdescribedindetailelsewhere.1Briefly,thetotalnumberofcasesineachstateisestimatedusingaspatiotemporalmodelbasedonincidencedatafrom49statesandt
7、heDistrictofColumbiafortheyears2001through2015thatmettheNorthAmericanAssociationofCentralCancerRegistries’high-qualitydatastandardforincidence.Then,thenumberofnewcasesnationallyandineachstateistemporallyprojected4yearsaheadusingvectorautoregression.Thisme
8、thodconsidersgeographicvariationsinsociodemographicandlifestylefactors,medi-calsettings,andcancerscreeningbehaviorsaspredictorsofincidenceandalsoaccountsforexpecteddelaysincasereporting.StageatDiagnosisSeveraldiffer