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1、800.330.7348•cohenandsteers.comSPRING2010QAREITsasanInflationHedgeNowthatfinancialmarketsarerecovering,driveninpartbymassivegovernmentstimulus,investorsarestartingtoworryaboutinflation.HoweffectiveareREITsasaninflationhedge?It’saquestionwe’rehearingalottheseda
2、ys,andsoweaskedScottCrowe,seniorvicepresidentandglobalportfoliomanager,forhisviews.1.Doyouthinkwewillseeasignificantincreaseininflationinthenexttwoyears?Thereareanumberofindicationsthatinflationaryexpectationsareincreasing—thehighpriceofgold,forexample.Therun-
3、upinthepricesofcommoditiessuchasoilandcopperisanothersign,asemergingmarketsincreasetheirdemandforlimitedresources.WearealreadyseeingsignsofinflationarypressureintheBRICcountries—Brazil,Russia,IndiaandChina—whichmayultimatelyleadtoappreciationintheircurrencies.
4、That,inturn,couldpassonhighercoststotheirtradingpartnersinmoredevelopedeconomies.YoucanseethisinFigure1,whichcomparestheFIGURE1:ConsUmERPRICEIndExInBRICCoUnTRIEsvs.G7CoUnTRIEsconsumerpriceindex(CPI)fordevelopedcountries1/31/98–12/31/09(WeightedbyGdP)(year-over
5、-year%change)withtheCPIfortheBRICcountries.16%Havingsaidthat,Idon’tbelievewewillseeabig14%increaseinconsumerpriceindexesinthedeveloped12%worldin2010,aspressurewilltakesometimetobuild.10%And,withhighunemploymentintheUnitedStates,8%BRICslackincapacityutilization
6、andstill-fragilerecoveries6%aroundtheworld,centralbanksarelikelytobeslowinraisinginterestrates.Butbyacknowledgingthathigher4%levelsofinflationwillbeacharacteristicofthenext2%growthcycle,smartinvestorswillbeready.0%G7-2%2.TIPSandcommoditieshavelongbeentradition
7、al-4%989900010203040506070809inflationhedges.Howdoescommercialrealestatecompare?Source:Cohen&Steers,Bloomberg.G7countriesincludeCanada,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,UnitedKingdomandUnitedStates.Thereareadvantagestoallthree.WithTIPS(TreasuryThereisnoguaranteethata
8、nyhistoricaltrendwillberepeatedinthefuture,andnowaytopredictpreciselywhensuchatrendwillbegin.Inflation-ProtectedSecurities),theprincipalvaluefluctuatesdaily,basedontheCPI-Uindex,(1
