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1、6TheMcKinseyQuarterly2005specialedition:ValueandperformanceDofundamentals—oremotions—drivethestockmarket?7Dofundamentals—oremotions—drivethestockmarket?Emotionscandrivemarketbehaviorinafewshort-livedsituations.Butfundamentalsstillrule.MarcGoedhart,Tim
2、othyKoller,andDavidWesselsThere’sneverbeenabettertimetobeabehaviorist.Duringfourdecades,theacademictheorythatfinancialmarketsaccuratelyreflectastock’sunderlyingvaluewasallbutunassailable.Butlately,theviewthatinvestorscanfundamentallychangeamarket’scours
3、ethroughirrationaldecisionshasbeenmovingintothemainstream.Withtheexuberanceofthehigh-techstockbubbleandthecrashofthelate1990sstillfreshininvestors’memories,adherentsofthebehavioristschoolarefindingiteasierthanevertospreadthebeliefthatmarketscanbesometh
4、inglessthanefficientinimmediatelydistillingnewinformationandthatinvestors,drivenbyemotion,canindeedleadmarketsawry.Somebehavioristswouldevenassertthatstockmarketsleadlivesoftheirown,detachedfromeconomicgrowthandbusinessprofitability.Anumberoffinanceschol
5、arsandpractitionershavearguedthatstockmarketsarenotefficient—thatis,thattheydon’tnecessarilyreflecteconomic1fundamentals.Accordingtothispointofview,significantandlastingdeviationsfromtheintrinsicvalueofacompany’ssharepriceoccurinmarketvaluations.1Foranov
6、erviewofbehavioralfinance,seeJayR.Ritter,“Behavioralfinance,”Pacific-BasinFinanceJournal,2003,Volume11,Number4,pp.429–37;andNicholasBarberisandRichardH.Thaler,“Asurveyofbehavioralfinance,”inHandbookoftheEconomicsofFinance:FinancialMarketsandAssetPricing,G
7、.M.Constantinidesetal.(eds.),NewYork:ElsevierNorth-Holland,2003,pp.1054–123.8TheMcKinseyQuarterly2005specialedition:ValueandperformanceTheargumentismorethanacademic.Inthe1980stheriseofstockmarketindexfunds,whichnowholdsome$1trillioninassets,wascausedi
8、nlargepartbytheconvictionamonginvestorsthatefficient-markettheorieswerevaluable.AndcurrentdebatesintheUnitedStatesandelse-whereaboutprivatizingSocialSecurityandotherretirementsystemsmayhingeonassumptionsabouthowinvestorsarelikelytohandletheirre
