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1、农业资源与环境学报JournalofAgriculturalResourcesandEnvironment2016年9月·第33卷·第5期:397-406September2016·Vol.33·No.5:397-406规模化畜禽养殖粪便主要污染物产生量预测方法研究进展*渠清博,杨鹏,翟中葳,张克强(农业部环境保护科研监测所,天津300191)摘要:合理估算和预测畜禽粪便中有机质、氮、磷等主要污染物的浓度及产生量对于有效预防和控制畜禽粪便对环境的污染,实现其资源化和无害化利用具有重要意义。通过综述近几年国内外关于畜禽粪便主要污染物产生量预测方法的研究进展,分别对产污系数法和数
2、学模型法进行了归纳,重点讨论了各预测方法的主要特点、预测精度及适用范围,提出了今后我国畜禽粪便主要污染物产生量预测方法需要加强的几方面内容。关键词:畜禽粪便;主要污染物;产污系数;预测模型中图分类号:X713文献标志码:A文章编号:2095-6819(2016)05-0397-10doi:10.13254/j.jare.2016.0046引用格式:渠清博,杨鹏,翟中葳,等.规模化畜禽养殖粪便主要污染物产生量预测方法研究进展[J].农业资源与环境学报,2016,33(5):397-406.QUQing-bo,YANGPeng,ZHAIZhong-wei,etal.Predict
3、ionMethodsofMajorPollutantsProductioninManurefromLarge-scaleLivestockandPoultryFarms:AReview[J].JournalofAgriculturalResourcesandEnvironment,2016,33(5):397-406.PredictionMethodsofMajorPollutantsProductioninManurefromLarge-scaleLivestockandPoultryFarms:AReviewQUQing-bo,YANGPeng,ZHAIZhong-wei
4、,ZHANGKe-qiang*(InstituteofAgro-environmentalProtection,MinistryofAgriculture,Tianjin300191,China)Abstracts:Itissignificanttoprovidebasicdataforthepollutioncontrolandresourceutilizationbyestimatingtheconcentrationsandthepro原ductionofmajorpollutantsinmanurefromintensiveanimalhusbandry,suchas
5、organicmatter,nitrogenandphosphorus.Thisarticlere原viewedtherecentadvancesfromtheresearchonpredictionmethodsofpollutantsyieldinmanurefromintensiveanimalhusbandry.Pollutantgenerationcoefficientsandpredictionmodels,includingmodelsbasedoncompositionofdietary,physicalandchemicalpropertiesandnear
6、-infraredspectrumanalysis,weresummarizedrespectively.Pollutantgenerationcoefficientswereaveragelevelofmajorpollutantsinlivestockandpoultrymanure,whichweremorepreciseatthemacrolevelandwereusedtopredicttheamountofpollutants.Therewerethreepredic原tionmodelsystemsdiscussed.First,predictionmodels
7、basedoncompositionofdietarywerelessaccuratethanothersbutweremoreusefulforfarmswherecouldgetthebasicdataofthediettopredictrapidlytheconcentrationsoforganicmatter,nitrogenandphosphorusofmanureforthetreatmentandutilizationofmanure.Second,predictionmodelsbas