中国区域经济增长俱乐部趋同分析

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1、Abstract“Clubconvergence’’isaresearchrelativelyweakdomainintheresearchofregionaleconomicdevelopmentconvergence，TheWeatern．academiccirclesstartedtakesresearchoftheclubconvergenceuntil1990sintermediatestages．Inthepreviousstudies，regionsweremostlyregarded雒‘island’，itWaSsu

2、pposedtobeindependentandseal．Butinrealworld，regionaleconomicisaopensystem，suchasknowledgeandtechnologicaldiffusionandthemobileofpeopleandfactors，allhaveinfluencetoregionsandthereneighborsbyagglomerationandradiationeffect．Soregionaleconomicisnotindependentbutrelatedtoea

3、chother．Thismeansthatthepreviousstudieswhichneglectedthespatialdynamicspossiblehavetheproblemofusedirrelevancymodelsorreceiveduncertainlydeduction．Recentyears，alongthedevelopmentofExploratorySpatialDataAnalysis，economicgeographerstartedconsiderstheinfluencetoclubconver

4、gencebyspatialautocorrelation．Underthepremiseofthespatialautocorrelationofregionaleconomicdevelopment,throughtechnologies邵Markovchain，SpatialMarkovchain，spatialregressionmodels，thepaperanalysistheclubconvergenceofregionaleconomicdevelopmentduring1990-2004．Thisdissertat

5、ionisdividedintofivechapter．Chapteroneindicatesthesignificanceoftheresearch,andanalysistheinternalandexternalliteratures，andpointouttheproblemsofthepreviousresearchisneglectedtheinfluenceofspatialautocorrelationintheregionaleconomicdevelopment．Thenputforwardtheresearch

6、thoughtofthepaperonthisbaSis．Chaptertwofwstbdeflyintroducestheresearchregions，baSicrcsearchcell，datasource，thenintroducesthemethodsofthispaperdetailed．themainmethodsareMarkovchains，SpatialMarkovch如，spatialregressionmodels．Chapterthreefaststudiesthespace-timeevolvementc

7、haracteristicsofclubmconvergenceinthedevelopmentofchinaregionaleconomy．Then，thepaperdenotethespatialcorrelationofregionsthroughconstructsthematrixofspatialweigh，contractsthematrixofSpatialMarkovchainontheconditionofregionspatiallagquantity，andanalysistheroleofspmialfac

8、torsintheclubofregionaleconomics．Chapterfourincludecontentsasfollowfirstly,calculatingtheintensityofspatialautocorrel