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1、DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGEAUSDEMFACHBEREICHWIRTSCHAFTSWISSENSCHAFTENDERUNIVERSITÄTESSENNr.124November2002ForeignPriceShocksandMonetaryPolicyinanAsymmetricMonetaryUnionHans-WernerWohltmannVolkerClausenForeignPriceShocksandMonetaryPolicyinanAsymmetricMonetaryUnionHans-WernerWohltmann*VolkerClausen**Abstract
2、Thispaperanalyzesthedynamiceffectsofanticipatedandunanticipatedforeignpricein-creasesofimportedrawmaterialsforasmalltwo-countrymonetaryunion,whichissimulta-neouslycharacterizedbyasymmetricwageadjustmentsandasymmetricinterestratesensi-tivitiesofprivateabsorption.Itisshownthatbothtypesofinputpricedis
3、turbancesleadtotemporarydivergencesinoutputdevelopmentsacrossthemonetaryunion.Inthecaseofan-ticipatedmaterialspriceincreasestherelativecyclicalpositionofoutputeffectsisreversedinthecourseoftheadjustmentprocess.Withanticipatedinputpriceincreasescompletestabili-zationoftheoutputvariablesthroughoutthe
4、overalladjustmentprocessrequiresrestrictivemonetarypolicytobetime-inconsistentfromaquantitativebuttime-consistentfromaquali-tativepointofview.Thatmeansthatthecentralbankcrediblyannouncesafuturereductioninthegrowthrateofnominalmoneystockbutactuallyrealizesadecreaseinthemonetarygrowthrate,whichisless
5、restrictivethantheannouncement.JELclassification:E63,F41Keywords:EMU,internationalpolicytransmission,oilpriceshock,timeinconsistencyNovember2002*Prof.Dr.Hans-WernerWohltmann,UniversityofKiel,InstituteofEconomics,D-24098Kiel,Germany,Phone:++49-431-880-1446;Fax:++49-431-880-3150,Email:wohltmann@econo
6、mics.uni-kiel.de.**Correspondingauthor:Prof.Dr.VolkerClausen,UniversityofEssen,FB5-DepartmentofEconomics,D-45117Essen,Germany,Phone:++49-201-183-3655;Fax:++49-201-183-3974,Email:vclau-sen@vwl.uni-essen.de.ThispaperwascompletedduringaresearchvisitofVolkerClausenatIndianaUniversity,KelleySchoolofBusi
7、ness.HethankstheDepartmentofBusinessEconomicsandPublicPolicyforitshospitalityandsupport.Theusualdisclaimerapplies.11.IntroductionThispaperanalyzestheimpactofforeignpriceshocksinanasymmetricmonetaryunionandt
