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1、OptimalIn
ationTarget:InsightsfromanAgent-BasedModelJean-PhilippeBouchaud,1StanislaoGualdi,1MarcoTarzia,2andFrancescoZamponi31CFM,23ruedel'Universite,75007Paris,France2UniversitePierreetMarieCurie-Paris6,LaboratoiredePhysiqueTheoriquedelaMatiereCondensee,4,PlaceJussieu,Tour12,75252ParisCedex05,
2、France3Laboratoiredephysiquetheorique,Departementdephysiquedel'ENS,Ecolenormalesuperieure,PSLResearchUniversity,SorbonneUniversites,UPMCUniv.Paris06,CNRS,75005Paris,FranceWhichlevelofin
ationshouldCentralBanksbetargeting?Weinvestigatethisissueinthecontextofasimpli edAgentBasedModeloftheeconomy.
3、Dependingonthevalueoftheparametersthatdescribethebehaviourofagents(inparticularin
ationanticipations),we ndarichvarietyofbehaviouratthemacro-level.Withoutanyactivemonetarypolicy,ourABMeconomycanbeinahighin
ation/highoutputstate,orinalowin
ation/lowoutputstate.Hyper-in
ation,de
ationandbusinesscycle
4、s"betweencoexistingstatesarealsofound.WethenintroduceaCentralBankwithaTaylorrule-basedin
ationtarget,andstudytheresultingaggregatevariables.Ourmainresultisthattoo-lowin
ationtargetsareingeneraldetrimentaltoaCB-monitoredeconomy.Onesymptomisapersistentunder-realisationofin
ation,perhapssimilartothecur
5、rentmacroeconomicsituation.Higherin
ationtargetsarefoundtoimprovebothunemploymentandnegativeinterestrateepisodes.OurresultsarecomparedwiththepredictionsofthestandardDSGEmodel.ContentsI.Introduction2II.Methodologicalremarksandscopeofthepaper3III.AshortrecaponMark-03A.TheCentralBankpolicy4B.Households
6、5C.Firms51.Financialfragility52.Productionupdate63.Priceupdate64.Wageupdate7D.Parametersofthemodel7IV.Theative"stateoftheeconomy8V.In
ationtargeting9A.Highin
ation/highoutput(HIHO)nativestate11arXiv:1709.05117v2[q-fin.EC]8Feb2018B.Lowin
ation/lowoutput(LILO)nativestate11C.Economicinterpretation11D
7、.PhillipsCurves12E.Discussion13VI.ComparisonwithDSGE&Conclusion13Acknowledgments15A.Pseudo-codeofMark0within
ationexpectations15References182I.INTRODUCTIONMostCentralBanksaroundtheworldnowadaysadjustt
