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1、IntroductionBankruptcyintheUSMethodologyDataResultsConclusionsPariahsorPals:Understandingpeerin‡uencesonthebankruptcydecisionEthanCohen-ColeandBurcuDuygan-BumpFederalReserveBankofBostonPresentationattheChicagoBankStructureConference8May2009IntroductionBankru
2、ptcyintheUSMethodologyDataResultsConclusionsFigure1:BankruptcyFilings700600500400300Filings(thousands)20010001994Q11995Q11996Q11997Q11998Q11999Q12000Q12001Q12002Q12003Q12004Q12005Q12006Q12007Q12008Q1IntroductionBankruptcyintheUSMethodologyDataResultsConclusi
3、onsExistingExplanations:Commonlydiscussedexplanationsforrisingbankruptcyrates:Adverseevents,suchasunemployment,healthshocks,anddivorce.Changesinthecreditmarketenvironment:1Decreasedtransactioncosts,andexpansionofcreditincludingtoriskierhouseholds(supplyside)
4、;2Decreasedcostsof…lingforbankruptcy,includinglegalandinformationcosts,aswellassocialstigma(demandside).Ourfocusisthislastitem—theroleofsocialfactors.IntroductionBankruptcyintheUSMethodologyDataResultsConclusionsWhyfocusonthesesocialphenomena?Muchdiscussiona
5、ndanecdotalevidenceabouttheroleofstigmaandchangesinsocialattitudes:ArecentWallStreetJournalarticle:“Now,EvenBorrowersWithGoodCreditPoseRisks.”BankofAmericaCEO:“There’sbeenachangeinsocialattitudestowarddefault.”Sociologistscontinuetoprovidequotesshowingthatst
6、igmaisstillstrongandalive:“Ithoughtof[bankruptcy]asamarkagainstmyname...Itwastooembarrassing...IfeellikeIfailed.Youknow,togobankrupt,that’sasignoffailure.”Andalsoamongeconomists:GrossandSouleles(2002),Fayetal.(2002),Athreya(2004),Chatterjeeetal.(2007),Livshi
7、tsetal.(2007)...IntroductionBankruptcyintheUSMethodologyDataResultsConclusionsHowdothesesocialfactorsmatter?Interactingwithotherswhohavegonebankruptorareintheprocessmayincreasethelikelihoodofanindividualgoingbankruptherself,because:Theideathat“everybodydoesi
8、t”reducestheassociatedembarrassment,orsocialstigmaassociatedwithbankruptcy;Peopleshareinformationandlearnfromone-anotherabouteligibility,applicationprocedures,andotherbureaucraticdetailsof…ling.
