INTERNATIONAL REAL ESTATE REVIEW国际房地产评论

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1、HierarchicalBayesianApproach1INTERNATIONALREALESTATEREVIEW2010Vol.13No.1:pp.1–29AHierarchicalBayesianApproachforResidentialPropertyValuation:ApplicationtoHongKongHousingMarket∗SamK.HuiSternSchoolofBusinessofNewYorkUniversity;Email:khui@stern.nyu.eduAlvinCheun

2、gMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyJimmyPangStanfordArtificialIntelligenceLaboratory,StanfordUniversityWehavedevelopedastatisticalmethodforthevaluationofresidentialpropertiesusingahierarchicalBayesianapproach,whichtakesintoconsiderationtheuniquestructureofthe

3、HongKongpropertymarket.OurmodeliscalibratedonadatasetthatcoversallresidentialrealestatetransactionsintenmajorHongKongresidentialcomplexesfromFebruary2008toFebruary2009.Althoughparsimonious,ourmodeloutperformsothervaluationmethodsthatarebasedonaverageprice-per

4、-square-feetorexpertassessments.Byprovidingourmodel-basedvaluationsonlinewithoutcharge,wehopetoimprovetransparencyintheHongKonghousingmarket,thusenablingconsumerstomakebetterinvestmentdecisions.∗Correspondenceauthor2Hui,CheungandPang1.IntroductionPropertyvalu

5、ationisanimportantissueforconsumers,realestateinvestors,andthebankingindustry.Forconsumersandrealestateinvestors,accurateassessmentsofresidentialrealestatepropertyvaluesarecrucialforfinancialplanningandmakinginvestmentdecisions.Forbanks,thereisaneedtovalueres

6、identialpropertiesaccuratelyinordertomakeoptimallendingdecisions(e.g.,evaluatingthesizeofthemortgageasapercentageofthepropertyvaluethatthebankiswillingtooffer)andtoassesstheamountofriskintheirexistingmortgageportfolios(LentzandWang1998).Thispaperfocusesonprop

7、ertyvaluationbasedonpasttransactiondataintheHongKongresidentialpropertymarket,anactivemarketforrealestatetransactions(Choyetal.2007).TheobtainingofaccuratepropertyvaluationintheHongKongmarketbasedonprevioustransactionpricesposesseveralkeymethodologicalchallen

8、ges.First,althoughconsideredanactivemarket,dataonHongKongrealestatetransactionsare“sparse”instatisticalterms.Forinstance,inourdataset(describedindetailinSection4)thatcoverstenmajorresiden