Lecture18FurtherTopicsonEconomicGrowthinChina(宏观经济学(南开大学,龚刚)

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1、MacroeconomicsLecture17TheEconomicGrowthinChinaQuestionstothemainstreamgrowththeoryIsfullemploymentanecessaryassumptiontoexplaintheeconomicgrowth?Musteconomicgrowthbesupply-driven?Coulditbedemand-driven?CanthemainstreamgrowththeorybeabletoexplainChina’seconomicgrowth?TheBasicPr

2、opertiesofChineseEconomyAdevelopingcountryLesscapitalstock(facilities)percapita;Dualstructureinurbanandruralarea,indicatingunlimitedsupplyoflaborfromcountryside:laborresourcesarenotfullyemployed.InequalityinregionaldevelopmentConvergencehypothesisindicatesthat…….TheBasicPropert

3、iesofChineseEconomyAlargereconomy(intermsofpopulation)Mayhavesomeadvantagescomparingtosmalldevelopingeconomy?AtransitioneconomyItisamarketeconomyformostindustries(noplanning);Co-existenceofprivateandstateenterprisesformostindustries;Financialindustriesarestillstate-owned.Highgr

4、owthinChina,anexpressionAFrameworkforanalysisMustconsiderfrombothdemandandsupplyperspective.Unemploymentineconomicresource(laborandcapitalstock?)isasimpleobservation.MustconsidertheinvestmentHighgrowthinChina,anexpressionHighgrowthfromdemandperspectiveConsumptionGrowthversusGDP

5、GrowthHighgrowthinChina,anexpressionInvestmentGrowthversusGDPGrowthHighgrowthinChina,anexpressionInvestmentversusConsumptionHighgrowthinChina,anexpressionHighgrowthfromsupplyperspectiveHighgrowthininvestmentindicatesfastaccumulationofcapacity(facility)LaborsupplyisunlimitedHigh

6、growthinChina,anexpressionMajorconclusionThehighergrowthininvestmentisthemajordrivingforcetothehighgrowthinChinaInvestmentnotonlycreatesdemandviamultiplier.Investmentalsocreatescapacity.Meanwhilelaborsupplyisunlimited.Canweregardsuchexplanationasbeingademanddriven(drivenbydeman

7、dforinvestment)perspective?Whyinvestmentissohighinthepast?Stablepoliticalsystem,nosignificantupheavalandrevolutionTheadvantageoflargercountryMoreinvestmentopportunities(upgradingexistseverywhere).Whyinvestmentissohighinthepast?TheadvantageinresourceforinvestmentCheaplaborduetot

8、heunlimitedsupplyCheaplandprovidedbylocalgovernmentsfo