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1、ACOMPARISONOFDIVIDEND,CASHFLOW,ANDEARNINGSAPPROACHESTOEQUITYVALUATIONStephenH.PenmanWalterA.HaasSchoolofBusinessUniversityofCalifornia,BerkeleyBerkeley,CA94720(510)642-2588andTheodoreSougiannisCollegeofCommerceandBusinessAdministrationUniversityofIllinoisatUrbana-ChampaignCha
2、mpaign,IL61820(217)244-0555January,1995Revision:April,1996WethankPatO'Brien,JimOhlson,MikeOleson,MortonPincus,StephenRyan,JacobThomasandDaveZiebartforcomments.ABSTRACTStandardformulasforvaluingequitiesrequirepredictionofpayoffs"toinfinity"forgoingconcernsbutapracticalanalysis
3、requiresthattheybepredictedoverfinitehorizons.Thistruncationinevitablyinvolves(oftentroublesome)"terminalvalue"calculations.Thispapercontrastsdividenddiscounttechniques,discountedcashflowanalysis,andtechniquesbasedonaccrualearningswhenappliedtoafinite-horizonvaluation.Valuati
4、onsbasedonaverageexpostpayoffsovervarioushorizons,withandwithoutterminalvaluecalculations,arecomparedwith(exante)marketpricestogiveanindicationoftheerrorintroducedbyeachtechniqueintruncatingthehorizon.Comparisonsoftheseerrorsshowthataccrualearningstechniquesdominatefreecashfl
5、owanddividenddiscountingapproaches.Further,therelevantaccountingfeaturesofeachtechniqueareidentifiedandthesourceoftheaccountingthatmakesitlessthanidealforfinitehorizonanalysis(andforwhichitrequiresacorrection)arediscovered.Conditionswhereagiventechniquerequiresparticularlylon
6、gforecastinghorizonsareidentifiedandtheperformanceofthealternativetechniquesunderthoseconditionsisexamined.ACOMPARISONOFDIVIDEND,CASHFLOW,ANDEARNINGSAPPROACHESTOEQUITYVALUATIONThecalculationofequityvalueistypicallycharacterizedasaprojectionoffuturepayoffsandatransformationoft
7、hosepayoffsintoapresentvalue(price).Agooddealofresearchonpricingmodelshasfocusedonthespecificationofriskforthereductionofthepayoffstopresentvaluebutlittleattentionhasbeengiventothespecificationofpayoffs.Itisnoncontroversialthatequitypriceisbasedonfuturedividendstoshareholders
8、butitiswell-recognizedthatdividenddiscountingtechniqueshavepractical
