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1、TheUnemploymentRateSummaryUnemploymentratereflectstheemploymentsituationofacountryoradistrict.Itispossiblethatsomecountrieshavesimilartimeseriesinunemploymentrate.Wewanttodividethesecountriesintoservalclasses,andthenwecanpredicttheemploymentrateofspecialclassandstudythefac
2、torsinfluencingunemploymentrate.Wecomputemeanandvarianceofunemploymentrateindifferentregions,andsortthemindependently.Fromtheaboveresults,weknowthatSpain,PolandandBulgariahavebiggervaluesinabovetwostatisticsthantheothers,whichrevealsthesegovernmentsperformedbadlyinemployme
3、nt.WeusetheSystemClustermethodtodivide35countriesintofourlevelsaccordingtopseudoFstatistic.Thesameclassdataillustratethatthesecountriesarecommoninunemploymentrate,especially,Spainisaclassalone.TakingunemploymentdataofChinaasexample,wesolvethisproblemwithtimeseriesaftermaki
4、ngoriginaldatastationary.WeselecttheappropriatemodelthroughAICandSBCstatistics,andthenwegetthetrendequation.Whentestingthequalityoffitting,weobtaintheMPEAstatisticwhichis3.51%,thuswethinktheequationperformswell.SowepredictURin2011and2012,comparingwiththemeasuringvalues,iti
5、ssurprisedthatpredictingvaluesissameasmeasuringvalues.Atend,werepeattheaboveprocesswiththedataofJapanandAustralia.Forstrugglingwithmulticollinearityandnonlinearityalwaysexistingineconomicdata,weuseRFR(randomforestsregression)method.BycomparingR-Square,MSEandMPEA,weobtainth
6、attheRFRismoreaccuracythanOLSR.Inordertoillustratetheimportanceofindependentvariables,wedefineastatisticasacriterion.WeuseClusterAnalysis,TimeSeriesAnalysisandtheRandomForestsRegressiontoanalyzetheunemploymentrateamongdifferentregions.Keywords:SystemCluster;TimeSeries;RFR;
7、OLSR;1.IntroductionTwoyearsafterwewillfindajob,atthattime,theunemploymentratewillbeassociatedwithus.Nowletusexploretheunemploymentrate.Unemploymentrateisanimportant indexofthecapitalmarket,is alaggingindicator category. Theincreaseinunemployment is aweakeconomysignal, cans
8、timulateeconomicgrowth.Onthecontrary, theunemploymentratedropped willbetheformationof inf
