道琼斯指数的内在价值是什么

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1、道琼斯指数的内在价值是什么？WhatistheIntrinsicValueoftheDow?摘要Wemodelthetime-seriesrelationbetweenpriceandintrinsicvalueasacointegratedsystem,sothatpriceandvaluearelong-termconvergent.Inthisframe-work,wecomparetheperformanceofalternativeestimatesofintrinsicvaluefortheDow30stocks.During1963–1996,t

2、raditionalmarketmultipleshavelittlepredictivepower.However,aV0Pratio,whereVisbasedonaresidualincomevaluationmodel,hasstatisticallyreliablepredictive.Furtheranalysisshowstime-varyinginterestratesandanalystforecastsareimportanttothesuccessofV.Alternativeforecasthorizonsandriskpremiaar

3、elessimportant.我们在价格和内在价值之间建立了时间序列模型作为一个协整的系统，以便使价格和内在价值处于一个长期收敛的状态。在此框架内，我们比较了30支道琼斯股票内在价值的替代估计表现。从1963-1996年，传统市场乘数几乎没有预测能力。（例如B/P,E/P,D/P比率）然而，V/P这个公式在统计学上有可靠的预测能力，其中V是基于剩余收益估价模型。进一步的分析显示，时变利率以及分析师的预测对于V的预测成功非常重要。预测界限的改变以及风险溢价并不是很重要。MOSTFINANCIALECONOMISTSAGREEthatastock’sintrins

4、icvalueisthepresentvalueofitsexpectedfuturedividends(orcashflows)tocommonshareholders,basedoncurrentlyavailableinformation.However,fewacademicstudieshavefocusedonthepracticalproblemofmeasuringintrinsicvalue.1Perhapsthescantattentionpaidtothisimportanttopicreflectsthestandardacademic

5、viewthatasecurity’spriceisthebestavailableestimateofintrinsicvalue.Consequently,manyresearchersregardfundamentalanalysis,thestudyofpublicfinancialinformationtoarriveatanindependentmeasureofin-trinsicvalue,asafutileexercise.大多数经济学家认为基于当前可用的信息，对于普通股股东，股票的内在价值是其预期未来股息（或现金流量）的现值。然而，有一些学

6、术研究侧重于测量内在价值的实用问题。也许对这个重要的主题的不太重视反映了标准的学术观点，债券价格是内在价值的最佳可用估计值。因此，许多研究者认为研究公共财务信息以达成一项独立措施本身内在价值的基本面分析徒劳无功。Thecasefortheequalityofpriceandvalueisbasedonanassumptionofinsignificantarbitragecosts.2Wheninformationandtradingcostsaretrivial,stockpricesshouldbebidandofferedtothepointwheret

7、heyfullyreflectintrinsicvalues.However,whenintrinsicvaluesaredifficulttomeasureand0orwhentradingcostsaresignificant,theprocessbywhichpriceadjuststointrinsicvaluerequirestime,andpricedoesnotalwaysperfectlyreflectintrinsicvalue.Insuchaworld,amorerealisticdepictionoftherelationbetweenp

8、riceandvalueisoneof