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1、LighteningStrikesTwice:CaliforniaFacesaRealRiskofASecondPowerCrisisLakeTahoeEnergyConferenceJuly30,2004CONFIDENTIALThisreportissolelyfortheuseofclientpersonnel.Nopartofitmaybecirculated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionoutsidetheclientorganizationwit
2、houtpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKinsey&Company.ThismaterialwasusedbyMcKinsey&Companyduringanoralpresentation;itisnotacompleterecordofthediscussion.TakingTheRightStepsToEnsureAPowerfulFuture5stepsthatwillensurealong-termsustainablemarketforpowerTHESTATEI
3、SATRISKOFANOTHERPOWERCRISIS,BUT5KEYSTEPSWILLHELPTOENSUREASUSTAINABLEPOWERMARKETActionneedstobetakentodaytopreventanotherenergycrisisNewgenerationneedstobebuilttoday,giventhelongleadtime,andamechanismformarket-basedcontractswithutilitiesneedstobeintrod
4、ucedCaliforniashouldintroducemandatorytime-of-usemeteringforallclassesofcustomersNewtransmissionneedstobebuiltandfacilitatedthroughaexpeditedandcoordinatedapprovalprocessbythePUC,ISO,CEC,andFERCAformalcapacitymarketcombinedwithamandatoryplanningreserv
5、etarget(e.g.,15-20%)needstobeinplaceby2006TheStateshouldre-introduceelementsofretailchoice,providinganopportunityforlargeconsumerstoshopforpowerCECestimatesindicatethatoperatingreservescoulddropbelowtypical“emergency”levelsifwehaveahotsummerUnfortunat
6、ely,theCEC’sdemandestimatesappearlowrelativetotrendanda“highdemandcase”(i.e.,hotsummer)maybeaslikelyasa 1-in-5occurrenceTakingintoaccountrealisticlevelsoffuturedemand,operatingreservescouldbeextremelytightby2006–aslowas5.8%(ina1-in-5yeardemandcase)1TH
7、ESTATE’SENERGYAGENCIESPROJECTANEAR-TERMRISKOFLOWRESERVEMARGINSINAHOTYEAR*Operatingreservemargincalculatedas(AvailableSupply–PeakDemand)/(PeakDemand)Source:CaliforniaEnergyCommission(July8,2004updatetoJune24,2004report)1-in-10year(hot)1-in-2year(averag
8、e)CECESTIMATESAugust2005August2006August2007August2008ProjectedCaliforniastateoperatingreservemargin*PercentAugust20047%target=StageOneemergencylevel5%target=StageTwoemergencylevelReservemarginsconsistentlydropbeginningin2006Demand2ENERGYAGENC
