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1、Practicallyallpeople(21)adesiretopredicttheirfuture(22).Peopleseeminclinedto(23)thistaskusingcausalreasoning.First,wegenerally(24)thatfuturecircumstancesare(25)causedorconditionedbypresent(26).Welearnthatgettinganeducationwill(27)howmuchmoneyweearnlaterinli
2、feandthatswimmingbeyondthereefmaybringanunhappy(28)withashark.Second,peoplealsolearnthatsuch(29)ofcauseandeffectareprobabilisticinnature.Thatis,theeffectsoccurmoreoftenwhenthecausesoccurthanwhenthecausesare(30)-butnotalways.(31),studentslearnthatstudyinghar
3、d(32)goodgradesinmostinstances,butnoteverytime.Sciencemakestheseconceptsofcausalityandprobabilitymoreexplicitand(33)techniquesfordealing(34)themmorerigorouslythandoescausalhumaninquiry.Itsharpenstheskillswealreadyhavebymakingusmoreconscious,rigorous,andexpl
4、icitinourinquiries.Inlookingatordinaryhumaninquiry,weneedto(35)betweenpredictionandunderstanding.Often,wecanmakepredictionswithoutunderstanding.Andoften,evenifwedon’tunderstandwhy,wearewillingtoact(36)thebasisofademonstratedpredictiveability.Whatevertheprim
5、itivedrivesorinstinctsthat(37)humanbeings,satisfyingthemdependsheavilyontheabilitytopredictfuturecircumstances.Theattempttopredictisoftenplayedina(38)ofknowledgeandunderstanding.Ifyoucanunderstandwhythingsarerelatedtooneanother,whycertainregularpatterns(39)
6、,youcanpredictbetterthanifyousimplyobserveandrememberthosepatterns.Thus,humaninquiryaims(40)answeringboth“what”and“why”questions,andwepursuethesegoalsbyobservingandfiguringout.21.[A]exhibit[B]exaggerate[C]examine[D]exceed22.[A]contexts[B]circumstances[C]cas
7、es[D]intuitions23.[A]underestimateB]undermine[C]undertake[D]undergo24.[A]recall[B]recede[C]reckon[D]recognize25.[A]somehow[B]somewhat[C]someone[D]something26.[A]one[B]ones[C]one’s[D]oneself27.[A]effect[B]affect[C]affection[D]decide28.[A]meeting[B]occurrence
8、[C]encounter[D]sighting29.[A]patterns[B]designs[C]arrangements[D]pictures30.[A]absence[B]absent[C]accent[D]access31.[A]Thus[B]Sothat[C]However[D]Inaddition32.[A]producing[B]produces[C]produce[D]produce
