banks-research-report-on-bitcoin

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1、CauseandEffectFXandRates

2、Global05December2013Bitcoin:afirstassessmentDavidWoo+16468555442FXandRatesStrategistMLPF&STamper-proof,limitedsupplyanddivisibilitydavid.woo@baml.comWebelieveBitcoincanbecomeamajormeansofpaymentfore-commerceandIanGordon+1646855874

3、9FXStrategistmayemergeasaseriouscompetitortotraditionalmoneytransferproviders.AsaMLPF&Smediumofexchange,Bitcoinhasclearpotentialforgrowth,inourview.ian.gordon@baml.comVadimIaralov+16468558732Storeofwealthfortheundergroundeconomy?FXStrategistIthasbeenreport

4、edthatBitcoinmayhelpusersavoidhightaxes,capitalcontrols,MLPF&Svadim.iaralov@baml.comandconfiscation.ThecorrelationbetweenCNY'sshareofvolumeofallBitcoinexchangesandpriceofBitcoinishighandrising(Chart1).Thatsaid,thefactthatallBitcointransactionsarepublically

5、availableandthateveryBitcoinhasauniqueTableofContentstransactionhistorythatcannotbealteredmayultimatelylimititsuseintheblackWhatisBitcoin?2market/underworld.Acost-benefitanalysis3HowtoassessBitcoin’sfairvalue?6VolatilityConclusions10Bitcoin’sroleasastoreof

6、valuecancompromiseitsviabilityasamediumofAppendix10exchange.Itshighvolatility,aresultofspeculativeactivities,ishinderingitsgeneralacceptanceasameansofpaymentsforon-linecommerce.Fairvalue?IsBitcoinabubble?AssumingBitcoinbecomes(1)amajorplayerinbothe-commerc

7、eandmoneytransferand(2)asignificantstoreofvaluewithareputationclosetosilver,ourfairvalueanalysisimpliesamaximummarketcapitalizationofBitcoinof$15bn(1BTC=1300USD).Thissuggeststhatthe100foldincreaseinBitcoinpricesthisyearisatriskofrunningaheadofitsfundamenta

8、ls.Chart1:RecentBitcoinpriceactionisdrivenbyspeculationonChineseexchanges80%140070%120060%100050%rinat.rond@bankofamerica.com.80040%60030%40020%10%200Thisreportisintendedfor0%09/3/201310/1/201310/29/201311/26/2013CNYvolume%ofBitcoinexchanges(LHS)Bitcoinpri

9、ceinChina,$(RHS)Source:BofAMerrillLynchGlobalResearchTradingideasandinvestmentstrategiesdiscussedhereinmaygiverisetosignificantriskandarenotsuitableforallinvestors.InvestorsshouldhaveexperienceinUnauthorizedr