A Failure of Capitalism_ The Crisis of '08 and the Descent into Depression

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1、AFailureofCapitalismTHECRISISOF‘08ANDTHEDESCENTINTODEPRESSIONRichardA.PosnerHARVARDUNIVERSITYPRESSCambridge,Massachusetts,andLondon,EnglandCopyright©2009bythePresidentandFellowsofHarvardCollegeAllRightsReservedPrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmericaFirstHarvardUniversityPresspaperbackedition,2011Libraryo

2、fCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataPosner,RichardA.Afailureofcapitalism:thecrisisof’08andthedescentintodepression/RichardA.Posner.p.cm.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN978-0-674-03514-0(cloth:alk.paper)ISBN978-0-674-06039-5(pbk.)1.Financialcrises—UnitedStates.2.Depressions.3.Capital

3、ism.4.UnitedStates—Economicconditions—2001–5.UnitedStates—Economicpolicy—2001–I.Title.HB3722.P672009330.973—dc222009004723ContentsPrefacevii1.TheDepressionandItsProximateCauses12.TheCrisisinBanking413.TheUnderlyingCauses754.WhyaDepressionWasNotAnticipated1175.TheGovernmentResponds1486.ASilverLining

4、?2207.WhatWeAreLearningaboutCapitalismandGovernment234Contents8.TheEconomicsProfessionAsleepattheSwitch2529.ApportioningBlame26910.TheWayForward28811.TheFutureofConservatism304Conclusion315FurtherReadings333Index337viPrefaceTheworldsbankingsystemcollapsedlastfall,wasplacedonlifesupportatacostofsome

5、trillionsofdollars,andremainscomatose.Wemaybetooclosetotheeventtograspitsenormity.Avocabu-laryrichonlyineuphemismscallswhathashap-penedtotheeconomyarecession.Wearewellbeyondthat.WeareinthemidstofthebiggesteconomiccrisissincetheGreatDepressionofthe1930s.ItbeganasarecessionthatistrueinDe-cember2007,t

6、houghitwasnotsogentleadown-turnthatitshouldhavetakenalmostayearforeconomiststoagreethatarecessionhadbegunthen.(Economistshavebecomealaggingindica-torofoureconomictroubles.)Therecessionhadbeentriggeredbyasharpnationwidedropinhous-ingpricestheprevioussummerthathadcausedthemarketinsubprimeveryriskymor

7、tgageloanstocollapse.HousingpriceshadbeenbidupviiPrefacetounsustainableheightsintheearly2000s.Whenthemarketdecidedthathouseswerenolongersuchasuperinvestment,manypeoplewhowereovermortgagedrelativetothevalueo