111013-the-southern-silk-road

《111013-the-southern-silk-road》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、GlobalEconomicsJune2011TheSouthernSilkRoadStephenKingChiefEconomistHSBCBankplc+442079916700TheSouthernSilkRoadstephen.king@hsbcib.comStephenistheHSBCGroup’sGlobalHeadofEconomicsandAssetAllocationresearch.Hejoinedthecompanyin1988,havingpreviouslyworkedasaneconomicadviseratthe

2、UKTreasury.StephenisaregulareconomicscommentatorontelevisionandradioandhaswrittenaweeklycolumnforTheIndependent,oneoftheUK’sleadingnewspapers,since2001.Stephen’sfirstbook,LosingControl:theEmergingThreatstoWesternTurbocharging'South-South'economicgrowthProsperityisnowavailabl

3、efromYaleUniversityPress.GlobalEconomicsTheformationofnew‘South-South’tradingroutes......linkingAsiawiththeMiddleEast,AfricaandLatinAmerica......issettorevolutionisetheglobaleconomyByStephenKingJune2011DisclosuresandDisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandanalystc

4、ertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofitMacroabcGlobalEconomics6June2011TheSouthernSilkRoadWearewitnessingthecreationofaSouthernSilkRoad,anetworkofnew“South-South”tradingroutesconnectingAsia,theMiddleEast,AfricaandLatinAmerica.“South-Sou

5、th”connectionsaresettorevolutionisetheglobaleconomy.Webelievethattradeandcapitalflowsbetweenemergingareasoftheworldcouldincreasetenfoldinthenextfortyyears.Inthesamewaythattradebetweenthedevelopednationsexplodedinthe1950sand1960s,westexpectthe21Centurytoseeturbochargedtradeg

6、rowthbetweentheemergingnations.Thescaleoftheopportunityishugeinpartbecausethe“economicborders”–tariffs,restrictionsonmigration,hostility-betweenemergingnationstodayarestillhigh.Removingthese“borders”won’tbeeasybutworkisalreadyunderway.CountriesinAsiahavealreadyformednewpol

7、iticalalliances.TradedealsbetweenChinaandcountriesinLatinAmericaarebecomingcommonplace.Therevolutionintradewillbematchedincapitalmarkets.Asianfinancialcentresaregrowingrapidlyand,intime,therenminbimaybecometheworld’smostimportantreservecurrency.TofacilitateSouth-Southconne

8、ctions,theemergingnationswillhavetoinvestheavilyininfrastructure.Already,Ch