统计学的成功案例和警示故事

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1、StatisticsSuccessStoriesandCautionaryTales统计学的成功案例和警示故事LESSON1第一课1.1WHATISSTATISTICS?什么是统计学Statisticsisacollectionofproceduresandprincipleforgatheringdataandanalyzinginformationinordertohelppeoplemakedecisionswhenfacedwithuncertainty.统计学是一套收集数据和分析信息的方法和原则，以帮助人们在面对不确定性时制定

2、决策。Theoddsoffindingtwoidenticalfingerprintswere1in64billion.—FrancisGalton两个随机个体具有相同DNA图形的概率为3×10-11；如果同时用两种探针进行比较，两个个体完全相同的概率小于5×10-19。每支枪的枪管都有独一无二的特征，这种特征影响了它所发射的每一发子弹。—司法弹道学航空公司通过抽样而省钱最早的英文原版《打败庄家》1.2SEVENSTATISTICALSTORIESWITHMORALS7个包含寓义的统计学故事Therearethreekindsoflie

3、s:lies,damnedliesandstatistics。BenjaminDisraeli(BritishPrimeMinister,1804–1881)CASESTUDY1WhoareThoseSpeedyDrivers?谁是快车手？“What’sthefastestyouhaveeverdrivenacar?”-PennStateUniversity,199411010990140105150120110110901159514514011010585951001151249510012514085120115105125102

4、8512011012011594125808514012092130125110901101109595110105801001101301051051209010010510012010010080100120105601251201001159511010180112120110115125559087Males8075838010010090759585909090120851001207585807085110857510595757090708285100909590110808011011095751309511011080

5、901059011075100901108590808085508010080808095100901009580805088909085709030858587859085759010280100951108095908090102FemalesResponsesto“What’sthefastestyou’veeverdriven?”DotplotMALESFastestspeed(mph)FEMALESFastestspeed(mph)Responsesto“What’sthefastestyou’veeverdriven?”Fi

6、ve-numbersummaryMales(87Students)Females(102Students)Median11089Quartiles951208095Extremes5515030130一条平均水深0.4m河流绝不会比一个平均水深0.6m的游泳池更安全Responsesto“What’sthefastestyou’veeverdriven?”Five-numbersummaryMales(87Students)Females(102Students)Median11089Quartiles951208095Extremes

7、5515030130Definition:Themedianisthevalueinthemiddlewhenthenumbersareputinorder.Thelowerquartileandupperquartileare(roughly)themediansofthelowerandupperhalvesofthedata.Moralofthestory1303015055Extremes958012095Quartiles89110MedianFemales(102Students)Males(87Students)Simpl

8、esummariesofdatacantellaninterestingstoryandareeasiertodigestthanlonglists.CASESTUDY2DisasterintheSkies