Stock Market Bubbles股票市场泡沫

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1、StockMarketBubbles(FinancialEuphoria)WehavenotedthattheEfficientMarketHypothesisassumesthatassetpricesarerationalandreflecttheinformationavailable.Wecanalsonotethatasindividualinvestorsrespondtonewinformationtheiractsmayberationalbuttheoverallcumulativeimpactofallthoseindividualrationalacti

2、onscanproduceashort-termover-reactioninthemarketandpricesmayovershootthenew‘correct’pricelevelbeforequicklyreturningtothatrationalprice.Experienceofthemarkets,however,indicatesthat,fromtimetotime,pricesmoveawayfromanyrationalvaluationandtakesometimebeforerevertingtothefairequilibriumpositio

3、n.Inthosecasesthepricesmaymovewellawayfromanyrationalvaluationandthemarketcorrection,whenitcomes,canbesharpandcausemajordifficulties.Thesesituationsarereferredtoas‘bubbles’andarecausedbyapsychological/behavioralresponsethatwascalled,bytheeconomistJKGalbraith“FinancialEuphoria”.Achairmanofth

4、eAmericanFedcoinedanequallyusefulnameaimedatFinancialEuphoriainstockmarkets–“IrrationalExuberance”.AlthoughallformsoffinancialtradedmarketareopentotheimpactofFinancialEuphoriaitsimpactonStockMarketsasaresultoftheparticipationofmanymoreprivateinvestorsandthetrendofsuchinstitutionsasPensionFu

5、nds(whoeffectivelyholdthesavingsofmanyindividuals)toinvestinthem.Oneoftheunderlyingfunctionswhichallowsfor‘bubbles’istheeaseofinvestmentanddisinvestment,particularlyinthecaseofstockmarkets,theimpactofderegulation,electronictradingandinternetplatformshasmadetheseactionsmuchmoreaccessible.Fin

6、ancialEuphoriahasalwaysbeenapartofthefinancialmarkets(wecantracebacksuchepisodestothedaysoftheRomanEmpire)buttheabovenotedchangestothemarketplaceseemtohaveincreasedtheirfrequency.InAShortHistoryofFinancialEuphoria,J.K.Galbraithexaminessignificantepisodesofspeculativeboomandbustduringthepast

7、fourhundredyears,sothattheircharacteristicscanbedefinedandunderstood.Withthisinformation,hehopestoequipinvestors,aswellasallpeoplewhoworkwithmoney,withtheinsighttoprotectthemselvesduringamarketrun-up,whathecallsaperiodoffinancialeuphoria.Galbraithiscerta