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1、HAZARDSANDPRECAUTIONS:TALESOFINTERNATIONALFINANCEGaryClydeHufbauerandErikaWadaInstituteforInternationalEconomicsSeptember1999InthewakeoffinancialcrisesinMexico(1994-95),Asia(1997-98),Russia(1998)andBrazil(1998-99),respectedobservershavequestionedthebenefitsofwide-openinterna
2、tionalcapitalmarkets(Bhagwati,1998;Krugman,1998;Rodrik,1998;Eichengreen,1999).Ourpurposeistoidentifytruehazardsandsuggestappropriateprecautions.THEBENEFITSOFFINANCIALINNOVATIONInternationalfinancialmagnitudeshaveexpandedfarmorerapidlyoverthepasttwentyyearsthaninternationalme
3、rchandisetrade(seethecomparisonsinTable1).Moreover,financialcriseshavebeenfrequent(byhistoricalstandards)duringthesetwodecades.Ontheotherhand,financialinnovationranksamongthefoundationsofstrongeconomicperformance,alongsidehighsavings,disciplinedbudgets,lowinflation,goodeduca
4、tion,andinformationtechnology.Countriesdifferenormouslyintheirdegreeoffinancialmaturity.Atoneextreme,incountriesatalowstageoffinancialdevelopment,banksdominatethefinancialsystemandeachbanklendsmostofitsfundstorelatedbusinessfirms.Thestockandbondmarketsaresmall,futuresandopti
5、onsmarketsdonotexist,privatemutualfundsandpensionfundsaretiny,securitizedmortgagesandequipmentleasingareunknown,andconceptofamarketforcorporatecontrol(throughhostilemergersandacquisitions)seemsalien.Inthesesettings,itisnosurprisethatscarcecapitalispoorlyallocated,whilebanksp
6、aylowornegativerealratesofinteresttohouseholds.Attheotherextreme,incountrieswithmaturefinancialsystems,the“missing”financialmarketsarewellestablished.Capitalisallocatedmoreefficientlybetweencompetingusesandhouseholdsearnbetterreturnsontheirsavings.Asimpleexampleillustratesth
7、evalueofefficientcapitalmarkets.IfcountryAhasnetannualsavingsequalto20percentofGDP,andfinancialintermediariesallocatethosesavingssoGaryHufbaueristheReginaldJonesSeniorFellowandErikaWadaisaResearchAssociateattheInstitute.thatthereturnoncapitalis5percentonaverage,capitalformat
8、ionwillcontribute1.0percentannuallytonationalgrowth(20percenttimes5percente
