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1、MaterialsandStructures,1995,28,415-430RILEMTECHNICALCOMMITTEESCOMMISSIONSTECHNIQUESDELARILEM107-GCSGUIDELINESFORTHEFORMULATIONOFCREEPANDSHRINKAGEPREDICTIONMODELSJustificationandrefinementsofModelB3forconcretecreepandshrinkage1.StatisticsandsensitivityZDENIEKP.BAZANT,SANDEEPBAWEJADepartmentofCivilEng
2、ineeringandMaterialsScience,NorthwesternUniversity,Evanston,IL60208,USAModelB3forcreepandshrinkagepredictioninthedesignofconcretestructures,presentedasaRILEMRecommendationinMaterStruct.28(1995)357-365,iscalibratedbyacomputerizeddatabankcomprisingpracticallyalltherelevanttestdataobtainedinvariouslabo
3、ratoriesthroughouttheworld.ThecoefficientsofvariationofdeviationsofthemodelfromthedataaredistinctlysmallerthanforthelatestCEBmodel,andmuchsmallerthanforthepreviousACImodel(whichwasdevelopedinthemid-1960's).Theeffectofconcretecompositionanddesignstrengthonthemodelparametersisidentifiedasthemainsource
4、oferror.Themodelissimplerthanthepreviousmodels(BPandBP-KX)developedatNorthwesternUniversity,yetithascomparableaccuracyandismorerational.1.INTRODUCTIONmechanismsandisinfluencedbymanyvariablefactors.InviewofthisfactitisnotsurprisingthatRealisticpredictionofconcretecreepandshrinkageimprovementshavebeen
5、comingonlyslowly,isofcrucialimportanceforthedurabilityandlongtermgradually.Nomajorbreakthroughhasoccurredintheserviceabilityofconcretestructures,andinsomecaseshistoryoftheresearchofthisphenomenon;however,alsoforthelongtermstabilityandloadcapacity.theaccumulatedadvancementofknowledgesincetheMispredic
6、tionsofthisphenomenon,whichcontributeearlysystematicresearchesinthe1930's,andtoexcessivedeflectionsandcracking,havebeenoneespeciallyduringthelasttwodecades,hasbeenoftheimportantreasonsforproblemswithlongevityenormous.Itisnowpossibletoformulateamuchofthecivilengineeringinfrastructureinallcountries.be
7、tterpredictionmodelthantwodecadesago.ErrorsinthepredictionofconcretecreepandshrinkageFourmajoradvanceshavemadeasignificanthavegenerallybeenlargerthanthosecausedbypredictionimprovementpossible:simplifi
