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1、ImitationistheSincerestFormofFlattery:WarrenBuffettandBerkshireHathawayGeraldS.Martin*JohnPuthenpurackalAmericanUniversityUniversityofNevada–LasVegasgmartin@american.edujohn.puthenpurackal@unlv.eduApril15,2008Abstract:WeanalyzeBerkshireHathaway’sequityp
2、ortfoliooverthe1976to2006periodandexplorepotentialexplanationsforitssuperiorperformance.Contrarytopopularbelief,wefindBerkshireHathawayinvestsprimarilyinlarge-capgrowthratherthan“value”stocks.Overtheperiodtheportfoliobeatthebenchmarksin27outof31years,on
3、averageexceedingtheS&P500Indexby11.14%,thevalue-weightedindexofallstocksby10.92%,andaFamaandFrenchcharacteristic-basedportfolioby8.56%peryear.Althoughbeatingthemarketinallbutfouryearscanstatisticallyhappenduetochance,incorporatingthemagnitudebywhichthep
4、ortfoliobeatsthemarketmakesaluckexplanationextremelyunlikelyevenaftertakingintoaccountex-postselectionbias.WefindthatBerkshireHathaway’sportfolioisconcentratedinrelativelyfewstockswiththetopfiveholdingsaveraging73%oftheportfoliovalue.Whileincreasedvolat
5、ilityisnormallyassociatedwithhigherconcentrationweshowthevolatilityoftheportfolioisdrivenbylargepositivereturnsandnotdownsiderisk.Themarketappearstounder-reacttothenewsofaBerkshireHathawaystockinvestmentsinceahypotheticalportfoliothatmimicstheinvestment
6、satthebeginningofthefollowingmonthaftertheyarepubliclydisclosedalsoearnssignificantlypositiveabnormalreturnsof10.75%overtheS&P500Index.OurevidencesuggeststheBerkshireHathawaytriumviratesofWarrenBuffett,CharlesMunger,andLouSimpsonposses’investmentskillun
7、likelytobeexplainedbyEfficientMarketTheory.JELclassification:G11;G14;G22;C22Keywords:WarrenBuffett,BerkshireHathaway,efficientmarkets,long-termperformance,investmentperformance,abnormalreturns,simulation.WethankCharlesCuny,RoGutierrez,andthemanypractiti
8、onersfortheirhelpfulcommentsandsuggestions.WealsothankKapilShiohareforhisassistanceincollectingdatafromtheSECPublicReferenceRoomandLoganStrohmforresearchassistance.*Contactauthor:Tel.:+1-979-574-4874.gmartin@american.edu(JerryMar
