贝恩咨询分析方法-PenetrationCurv

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1、Author:NancyGreenePenetrationCurve(S-Curve)March1998Copyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.1AgendaConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodologyCopyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.2Productscanbethoughtofasfollowingalife-cyclethathasseveraldistinctphases:earlyadoption/trialmassadoptionsaturation/substitutiondecl

2、ineTheproductlife-cyclegeneratesaseriesofmarketpenetrationratesthattendtofollowaspecificpattern,calledanS-curve(orpenetrationcurve)Giventhepatternofpenetrationcurvesovertime,andgiventhatthisrelationshipholdstosomeextentinalmosteverycase,penetrationcurvescanbeapowerfultoolinpredictingthegrowth

3、ofnewproductsWhatisaPenetrationCurve?(S-Curve)3ProductLife-CycleTimeVolumeProductscanbethoughtofasfollowingalife-cyclethathasseveraldistinctphases.Earlyadoption/trialMassadoptionSaturation/substitutionDeclineDrivenbypeoplewhoalwaysadoptnewthingsearlyandfueltheproduct’sinitialgrowthTheproductb

4、ecomesacceptedbythegeneralmarket;characterizedbyrapidproductgrowthTheproducthaseithersaturatedthemarket,orisalreadybeingsubstitutedforbyanotherproductthatisinanearlierphaseoftheproductlifecycleThedeclineoftheproduct,drivenbycompletesubstitutionfororreplacementwithanotherproduct4Characteristic

5、sofPenetrationCurvesPenetrationcanoccurattheexpenseofanexistingproduct,oritcandrivenewmarketstogrowSeveralfactorswillinfluencetheendstate,orsaturationpoint,ofaproduct:duration/speedofproductlife-cyclecompetitiveforcesinnovationculture/societyWhenconsideringpenetrationcurves,thereareafewcharac

6、teristicstokeepinmind:5AgendaConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodology6ApplicationsofPenetrationCurvesValidating/determiningmarketgrowthforaneworestablishedproductShowingprecedentsforsuccessofaproductthroughexistingpenetrationcurvesPredictingthesaturationlevelforaproductDeterminingmarketentrys

7、trategyortiming,giventhepredictedpenetrationofaproductDeterminingproductmanagementorphase-out,giventhespeedofnewproducts’adoptionPenetrationcurvescanbeusefulinaddressingaseriesofdifferentstrategicquestionswhicharisewhennewproductsenteramarket