外文报告：cs-liquidity！liquidity！liquidity！﹣hongkongmarketoutlookinxxxx-130103

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1、03January2013AsianDailyHongKongMarketOutlookin2013------------------------------------MaintainOVERWEIGHTLiquidity!Liquidity!Liquidity!CussonLeung,CFA/ResearchAnalyst/85221016621/cusson.leung@credit-suisse.comPeggyChan,CFA/ResearchAnalyst/85221016305/peggy.chan@credit-suisse.com●Whilet

2、hemarketislikelytobedominatedbythe“worst-is-over”HongKong:BenefitingfromChineseeconomystabilisingthemeinChinain1Q13,webelievethefocuswilllikelybebackWhilethemarketislikelytobedominatedbythe“worst-is-over”themeonHongKongwhenChina’seconomyreallystabilisesandrevertsinChinain1Q13,webeliev

3、ethefocuswilllikelybebackonHongtoastablegrowthtrend.OurDec-2013year-endtargetforHSIisKongwhenChina’seconomyreallystabilisesandrevertstoastable25,500basedonadividenddiscountmodel.growthtrend.Afterall,thekeyindustriesinHongKongarerelyingon●Despitethegovernment’sefforttocooldownthepotent

4、ialbuild-upthisstabilisedgrowthoutlook.Sectorsthatarelikelytobenefitareofanassetbubbleintheresidentialmarket,theinflowofliquidity,property,retail,transportationandgaming.RMBappreciationshouldcontinuedlowinterestratesandtheexchangerateimpact(i.e.,offsetsomeoftheimpactfromthegovernment’

5、sintroductionofBuyerweakeningUSDversusanappreciatingRMB)onlocalinflationStampDuty(BSD)andhelprejuvenatetouristarrivalsaswell.CargoarelikelytodominateHongKongforanotheryear.andexportrecoveryareexpectedtolendsupporttothetransportation●AmongthemajorMSCIsectors,weseethehighestgrowthinsect

6、or.transportationandconsumerdiscretionary(gaminginparticular)ToppicksforHongKongandhenceourtoppicksincludeCathayandMPEL.WealsolikeCathayPacific:WeexpectstrongChristmascargoes,pick-upinHutch,SHKPandSamsonite.businesstravellingin2013andastableoilprice.Tradingat1xP/B,it●Potentialsurprise

7、picksfor2013shouldbetheofficelandlordssuchalsoprovidesagoodvaluationbuffer.Hutchison:Weexpect18%asHongkongLand,SwireProp.andChampionREIT—shouldtheearningsCAGRforthenexttwoyears.ThestockhasbeenignoredbycapitalmarketinHongKongimprovefurther.Amongthesenames,themarket;webelieveHutchisagoo

8、dprox