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1、IVEncuentrodeEconomíaAplicadaDooilpriceshocksmatter?EvidenceforsomeEuropeancountries*ApreliminaryversionofthispaperispublisedinDocumentodeEconomíayFinanzasInternacionales01-02,AEEFI-FEDEA.Cuñado,JuncalPérezdeGracia,FernandoUniversityofNavarraAbstractThispaperanalyzestheoilprice-
2、macroeconomyrelationshipbymeansofanalyzingtheimpactofoilpricesoninflationandindustrialproductionindexesformanyEuropeancountriesusingquarterlydatafortheperiod1960-1999.First,wetestforcointegrationallowingforstructuralbreaksamongthevariables.Second,andinordertoaccountforthepossibl
3、enon-linearrelationships,weusedifferenttransformationofoilpricedata.Themainresultssuggestthatoilpriceshavepermanenteffectsoninflationandshortrunbutasymmetriceffectsonproductiongrowthrates.Furthermore,significantdifferencesarefoundamongtheresponsesofthecountriestotheseshocks.JELC
4、lassification:E32Keywords:oilpriceshocks,inflation,economicactivityCuñadoEizaguirre,JuncalPérezdeGraciaHidalgo,FernandoUniversidaddeNavarraUniversidaddeNavarraFac.EconómicasFac.EconómicasCampusUniversitarioCampusUniversitario31080Pamplona31080PamplonaTfno.:948-425625Tfno.:948-42
5、5625Fax:948-425626Fax:948-425626E-mail:jcunado@unav.esE-mail:fgracia@unav.es1.IntroductionAmongthemostseveresupplyshockshittingtheworldeconomiessinceWorldWarIIweresharpincreasesinthepriceofoilandotherenergyproducts.Duringtheperiod1960to1999,wehavewitnessedfourimportantoilshocks:
6、in1973-1974,whentheOrganizationofPetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC)firstimposedanoilembargoandthengreatlyincreasedcrudeoilprices,thepriceofthebarrelincreasedfrom$3.4to$13.4;in1978-1979,aftertheIranianrevolutiondisruptedoilsupplies,thepricerosefrom$20to$30;athirdonefollowedIraq´si
7、nvationofKuwaitin1990,whenpriceswentfrom$16to$26;finally,andduetothemostrecentoilshock,priceshavegrownupfrom$12to$24in1999.Thenegativeimpactoftheseoilpricechangeswasevidentinmostcases,asthemagnitudeofgrowthratesofindustrialproductionindexesandinflationratesofsomecountriestheimme
8、diateperiodsaftertheseshockssuggest.Table1shows
