基于粗糙集理论的光伏并网发电量预测研究

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1、AbstractAbstractAffectedbydimafieconditionsanditsownfactors，photovoltaiepowergenerationisinstability．Thisinstabilitywillaffectthecontrollingofthe鲥dloadfrequency,gridstability,systemreliabilityandpowerquality．Sotheshort-termforecastingresearchofphotovoltaiopow

2、ergenerationwillhelptostabilizepowersystemoperation，tooptimizegriddispatchingandtoprovideeffectiveprotectionforthedistributionloadmanagement．．Inthispaper,thegrid-connectedPVsystemcharacteristicsandoperationlawshasbeenanalyzed,whichisbasedonthe5．6kWgrid-connec

3、tedPVsysteminBeijingInstituteofArchitecturalEngineering,andtheforecastingnecessityhasbeenillustratedinit．Comideratingtheenvironmentalfactors，theforecastingmodelofgrid-connectedPVsystembasedonroughsettheorywasestablished．Theredundantattributewasremovedfromthed

4、ecisiontablewimtheattributereductionalgorithmofPawlakattributeimportance．ThecontinuousattributesofPVsystemsisdiscretebytheimprovedgreedyalgorithm．Inordertoobtainthe鲥d·connectedPVsystemperformancedata,thePVdatadetectioncircuitWasdesignedanddebugging,whichbased

5、otiSCMSTC89C52andADconversionADC0809．ThissystemCanfinish8-channelanalogsignalconversiontodigitalsignal，displaythecollecteddata011the1602LCDscreenin2sintervalsandimplementreal—timecommunicationwiththehostcompute．TheforecastingmodelsimulationprogramofPVpowergen

6、erationhasbeencom#etedwiththeClanguage．Comparedtheforecastingresultwithactureoperationresultsoftheweek,month,quarterandannualgoneration,itshowsthatformerismorecorrectand戤吼l娜Sotheresearchprovedthattheforecastingmodelofroughsetispractical．Keyword：photovoltaicpo

7、wergenerationforecasting,roughsettheory,Pawlakattributereduction,greedyalgorithm,detectioncircuitH目录目录北京建筑工程学院硕士学位论文原创性声明北京建筑工程学院硕士学位论文使用授权书摘要⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯l第l章绪论⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯。11．1j；l言⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯

8、⋯⋯．⋯⋯．11．2课题研究背景⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯l1．2．1太阳能光伏发电技术⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯l1．2．2光伏发电面临的问题⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯l1．2．3光伏发电对系统稳定性影响⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯。21．3国内外研究现状⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯