电力可计算一般均衡模型的构建及应用研究

《电力可计算一般均衡模型的构建及应用研究》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。

1、华北电力大学（北京）博士学位论文电力可计算一般均衡模型的构建及应用研究姓名：谭显东申请学位级别：博士专业：技术经济及管理指导教师：胡兆光20080601中文摘要计算公式，同样通过比较静态分析模拟了建立DSM专项资金对国民经济及电力需求的影响。第六章是中长期电力需求模拟。利用EPCGE模型通过“准’’递推动态的方式模拟了到2020年我国经济及电力需求的增长路径，不但模拟了未来各阶段的电力需求总量，而且还模拟出了各产业、各行业的电力需求，并分析了相关的结构变化情况。第七章为全文总结，并提出了本文有待进一步完善的5个方面：引入非完全竞争、构建考虑发电和

2、输电的EPCGE模型、构建多区域的EPCGE模型、动态属性的完善、完善和更新SAM表。关键词：电力，可计算一般均衡，社会核算矩阵，经济结构，碳税，需求侧管理UAbstractWiththeeconomicdevelopment，thegovernmentwillputforwardmanymaeroeconomiccontrolpoliciestoensureeconomicgrowth，becausetheelectricityisveryrelatedtoeconomy,thesepoliceswillaffecttheelectricpow

3、erindustrydirectlyorindirectly,itisverynecessaryforpolicymakersandtheleadersinelectricindustrytoknowtheaffects．Ontheotherhand，therearesomeelectricityshortagesorsurplusesinthepastyears，whichshowtheuncoordinateddevelopmentsbetweentheelectricityandeconomy,thereforeinordertopromo

4、tethecoordinatedgrowthbetweenthem，weshouldforcastthegrowthesofeconomyandelectricityandthendoelectricplanningexactly．Basedonthecomputablegeneralequilibrium(CGE)theory,theauthorbuildsanelectricpowercomputablegeneralequilibrium(EPCGE)model，itcallofferamethodtoevaluatetheimpactof

5、policyandtopromotethecoordinateddevelopmentsbetweeneconomyandelectricity,itCanalsoprovideaneffectivemethodtoelectricpowereconomicsresearch．Thepaperincludessevenchapters．Inchapterone，theGEandCGEtheoryareintroducedfirstly,someCGEmodelsarealsointroducedandthenthedifferencesbetwe

6、enCGEmodel，IO(input-output)modelandeconomicsmodel，intheendofthischapter,somedisputesareintroduced．Inchaptertwo，EPCGEmodelisintroducedindetail，includingthemodelingprincipia,thestructureofEPCGE，theplatformandthedevelopmentprocedure．Theauthordisaggregateelectricsectorintofoursub

7、scctors：thermalpowersector,hydropowersector,nuclearpowersectorandotherelectricpowersector．Inchapterthere，theSAMisintroducedindetail，includingthebasicstructureofSAM，thebalancingandupdatingmethodofSAM，theprocedureofestablishingSAMandthecalibrationofsomeparametersinEPCGEmodel．Th

8、eauthorputsforwardahybridmethedconsistingofRASandCEtoupdatingSAManda