高盛报告-中国金属和煤炭行业报告（英文版）

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1、January22,2010China:Metals&MiningJanuary22,2010China:Metals&MiningPositionforinflationacceleration/policytightening,preferupstreamMoresignsofgrowthstrength,moresignsofinflationaccelerationMidstreammarginandvaluationpeakbeforeCPICPI(1)Commoditypriceshavesurged20%sin

2、cethebeginningof4Q09asMarginyoy%%Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05demandgrowthaccelerates;seeourNov6reporttitled“Takingthepulse148%ChinaUpstream13inflationminingofconstructionvaluechain;growthaccelerating”.7%12(rig

3、htscale)margin11(2)Withhighergrowth,weseehigherinflationrisk.Ourchannelchecks6%10indicatetheinfrastructurebottleneckissoseverethatdemandforcargo95%Midstream8transportationvs.fulfillmentatonemajorrailwaybureauhasspikedtoprocessing4%7margin2.5:1comparedto1:1fulfillme

4、ntin4Q08andbelow50%utilization.63%5(3)WemaintainourviewthatChinademandwillremainstructurally42%strongalthoughthepathmaybecomemorevolatile.WeexpectaJul-08Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Aug-08Sep-08higherriskpremiumforthesectoraspol

5、icytighteningriskriseswithP/ECPI(X)yoy%inflationpressure.InitialsignsofaslowdowninpropertysalespromptJan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05158%Chinaustosearchforprotectioninmarginsandmultiples.14YanzhouinflationCoalP/E7

6、%13Chalco(rightscale)12P/E6%Lookformarginsecurity,whichvariesalongthevaluechain115%10(1)Upstreamsectorslikelytohavebetterpricingpower,althoughrising94%demandisgenerallypositiveforallcommodityprices.83%(2)Midstreamprocessing(steel/aluminum/cement),couldfacemargin762

7、%pressureontwofronts:RawmaterialcostpressurefromupstreamandJul-08Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Aug-08Sep-08demandimpactofpotentialpolicytightening.Wedowngradethemidstreamprocessingnames(3)Analysisofprevioustwocycles(2003/04and200

8、6/08)shows:HK$/RmbTargetPriceSharePriceRatingTickerPrev.NewChgCurrentUpsidePrev.New-Upstreamcoalindustrymarginspeaked6-9monthsafterCPI.Chalco2600