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1、AsiaPacificEquityResearch17March2011CorrectedNoteInitiationOverweightL'OccitaneInternationalSA0973.HK,973HKPrice:HK$17.30BestofbothworldsPriceTarget:HK$24.00•InitiatecoveragewithOW,Mar-12PTofHK$24,basedon1.1xPEGonaLuxembourg24%two-yearEPSCAGR,equatingto26xFY12
2、EP/E.L’OccitaneisaleadingSpecialtyRetailingnaturalingredientcosmeticsandpersonalcareproductretailer(Asia-ex,Japan,ACElsaYangAmericas,Europeaccountfor25%,24%,20%,and31%ofsales,respectively).(852)2800-8523Ourearningsoutlookhasthecompanyachievinga24%ROEbyFY14Eont
3、heelsa.hy.yang@jpmorgan.combackofitsuniqueverticallyintegratedretailingmodel,profit-orientedJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limitedexpansionstrategy,andpremiumbrandpositioning.•ProfitablegrowthmodelinDMsandEMs:L’OccitaneintendstodoubleitsPricePerformancedirec
4、tretailingnetwork,adding650storesoverFY11-15E,withapproximatelyone-thirdofthenewstoresinitstopfourdevelopedmarkets,whereL’Occitane24shouldbenefitfromsteadyretailrecoveriesandfurtherpenetration,andanotherHK$18one-thirdinBRIC(ofwhich40%inChina),wheresalesshoulde
5、njoystart-up12typegrowth.MarginsandROEhaverisenintandemwiththeenlargednetworkMar-10Jun-10Sep-10Dec-10Mar-11andhaveoutperformedmanyglobalpeers.Weexpectfurthermarginupsideon0973.HKshareprice(HK$productionandoperatingleverage,thusdrivingtwo-foldincreaseinearnings
6、HSI(rebased)overFY11-14E.•Weanticipatefurtherre-rating,onthebackofbetter-than-expectedChinaexpansion.L’Occitaneshouldreportnearlya5%salescontributionfromChinaYTD1m3m12minFY11,makingthecombinedmarketofHKandChinathecompany’ssecond-Abs-21.4%-12.1%-17.0%15.6%large
7、stmarket(atc.14%ofsales).RisingluxuryconsumptionshoulddriveRel-21.0%-13.1%-16.6%4.8%HK/Chinasalestoreach20%ofsalesbyFY15.FY11results,duetobereportedinJune,areapossiblenear-termcatalyst.•Pricetarget,keyrisks:Ourtarget1.1xPEGratiorepresentsa20%discounttoglobalpe
8、ersanda10%discounttoHK-listedconsumerdiscretionaries.ThediscountsreflectL'Occitane’ssmallerscaleversusglobalpeersandshortertradingtrackrecord.Keyrisksincludeanyabruptchangeineuroex
