消费信贷发展与经济增长关系实证研究

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1、西南交通大学硕士学位论文消费信贷发展与经济增长关系实证研究姓名：王瑾申请学位级别：硕士专业：技术经济及管理指导教师：史本山20070601西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文第1I页AbstractConsumercreditisapowerfulimplementwhichwillactivateconsumptionandpromotetheeconomicgrowth．Since1998theyearwhenPBCpromulgated‘'TheManagementofPersonalTenementCredit'’corl$umerere

2、dithasdevelopedalotinChina．Tilltheendof2006，thetotalbalanceofconsunlercredithascomeupto2404．6billionyuatl，amongwhichthebalanceofpersonaltenement’scredit．1985．7billionyuan,accountsfor82．6％．Thedevelopmentofconsllmercreditcallraisetheresourceofeconomicactivityandimprovetheciv

3、ileconomY；Callrealizethedemandofthelowerearningsahead，enhancetheirstandardofliving。cultivatecivilconceptionofcredit,improvethedevelopmentoffinance,andaggrandizethelxansferfunctionoffinanceinthesocialresourc圮collocationaswell．After10years，couldconsumercreditrealizeitsorig【n

4、alintention?Coulditimproveeconomy．Howpowerfulisittopromotethegrowthofeconomy?What’StherelationshipbetweenthepromotionofconsumercreditandthegrowthofeconomyinourcountrftBasingonbasictheory,thisthesisfirstanalyzestherelationshipbetweenconsumptionandeconomicgrowth，expatiatesre

5、spectivelyonMarxianconsumetheory,KeynesianismandMarshallTheoryofConsumerandeducestheeconomicsignificanceofdevelopingennsumercredit．Then,thisthesisanalyzesthebirthandtheeffectofennsumercreditfromtheaspectofdemandandsupplyThisthesisalsosummarizesthesituationofconsumerercdita

6、nditsshortageinourcountryatpresent．TheanalysisshowsanunreasonableeconomicgrowingstructureinOill"countrywhichisgettingworse．Inrecentyears，consumercreditdevelopsfast，butitstillCan’tcatchupthespeedofeconomicdevelopment．Consumercredittakesquiteasmallproportioninthewholecivilec

7、onomy,and西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文第Ⅲ页itsscaledoem’tmatchthescaleofthewholecivileconomy．Finally,龃econometricanalyzingmodelVARisimported．BasedOnthefinancialstatisticaldatafi'om2000to2006，takingGDP，thebalanceofconsumercredit．thegovemableincomeintownsandcitiesandthetotalsaleofrealestate

8、aSvariables．觚eTrorcorrectionmodeliSestablishedbasedonVARsystem．Wecontinuetoanalyzetherela