基于过程集成的研发项目进度风险分析方法与应用

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1、潮防科学技术大学研究生院学位论文裁态调整算法，荚鹫惫sRA转Pl提供了支持。接着，掇讨了磅发项嚣动态sR鸠PI的灏理。最后，在研发项目sRABPI理论方法研究的基础。，匕，结合某卫星有效载荷研制项目的具体j霪程，给爨了一令应用实铡。关键词：磺发项瓣，进发风险，过程集成，复合多视墨定量建模，随机资源约束项曩调度，仿真优化第li页国防科学技术大学研究生院学位论文ABSTRACTR&Dprojectshavesomecharacteristicssuchashightechnology，10nglifecycle，alldlargeinvestmentscale，、

2、vhichrcsultsinremarkabIescheduleriskpmblem．OnceI温Dprojectsc锄otbedeliveredintime，alotofeconomiclosswillbappenaIldthelossevenextendstola唱erproblemsbecauseitmakestheinvestorsloseacompetitioncbance．Therefbre，itisofveryimportancet0pcrfomscheduleriskanalysisbefore也eimplementationofR&Dproj

3、ect．However’merearesomecommonproblemsinexistingscheduleriska11alysismetllod．Forex锄ple，itisdi伍culttoensurct11ere邪ombil毋ofscheduleriskaIlalysisobjcct趾d鲫，Ⅳscheduleriskf她torS，tlleoptimizationofscheduleplallisalwaysbrokenbyschedIlleriskmanagementmeasures，aIldfcwresearchcs埘lyconsideredact

4、iv毋iterationaIldovcrl叩pinginR&Dproject．Tosolvetheseproblems，tllis山esistakesschedllleriskanalysispmcessintegranonasguidelines，presentsaR&DprojectscbeduleriskaIlalysismethodbasedonprocessinte伊ation(SRABPI)，whichprovidesancwwayandnewmetllodsforschcduleriskaIlalysisofR&Dpmiect．Themainco

5、ntems趾dfrIlitsof血isthesisareoutlinedasfollows：FirstlMSRABPIideaispresenteda11dSRABPI劬me、vorkisconstmcted丘Dmsev唧laspectssuch嬲body，connotation，processes，methods，maIlagememorg．越zation，aIldrelationsbetweenSRABPI肌dprojectriskmanagement．sRABPIinte胂testhreesequemialpmcessesofclassicalsched

6、uleriskanalysismemod，n锄elyprojectscheduleplann恤g，pfoje“scheduleriskassessment，柚dprojectscheduleriskmaIlagementplallIling，nooneprocess，whichavoidsmes锄edi伍cumesasabove趾drevcalstheideaofsystemoptiInization．secondly，byintegmtingtlleadvantagesofmlllti-viewmodelillgideaandrelationmodeling

7、method，acompouIldmul趴iewq啪ti枷vemodel(CMVQM)ofR&Dprocessiscons仃uctedac西rdhgtothcrcquircmentsofSRABPI．Rclationups廿e锄downstreambasedDSM(UDBD)isdefinedtoavoidsinglenessofclassicalDSMa11ditrein如rcesthecapabilit)，todescribeactivitvrelations：itcrationUDBDisdefincdtodescribemIlltij把阳donmode

8、sofactivities；overl