我国公路建设采取BOT融资模式的风险研究

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1、中国农业大学博士学位论文我国公路建设采取BOT融资模式的风险研究姓名：富宁申请学位级别：博士专业：管理科学与工程指导教师：邓乃扬20070601中田农业人学博I毕业论史英文摘舞AbstractBOT(Build-Operate-Transfer)model．asaneNvandefficientwayofprojectfinancingininfrastroctureconstructionsector,isplayingincreasinglyimportantroleinChinawiththehugespacea

2、ndthegraduallyripeoccasionforthethtureinvestment．Thispaper,whichisbaseduponthestatusquoofBOTmodeldevelopmentinChinaroadconstructionsector(CI配S)，istocreativelyanalyzeandresearchBOTfinancing(BF)，itsriskidentificationandtheevaluatingapproach．Theoretically,thepaperi

3、stoestablishthefoundationonwhichthesystemofriskanalyzingforBFwillbegraduallyfounded．Practically,thepaperistomakecontributionstoscientificallystandardizedecision-makingofBFandleadtotheincreaseofratioofsuccessfolBOTproject．Asaresult．thepaperwillbeseenastheoretical

4、lyandpracticallysignificanttotheresearchonBdTmodelinChina．ThepapershallbeginbyanalyzingthecharacteristicsofBEitsbasicfunctionsandtheoperatingprocess．Moreover,thepapershallfocusonthecomparisonsbetweenBFandChinesetraditionalfinancing，aswellasthecomparisonsofBFbetw

5、eenChinaandforeigncountries．Withtheconceptualfoundations，thepapershalldiscussapplyingBOTtoCRCS．Ofwhich，byanalyzingthestatusquoofBOTdevelopmentinChina，itsbackgroundandtheNational“EleventhFiveYears”DevelopmentPlanningforRoadConstruction，thepapershalldiscussthenece

6、ssityofadoptingBOT．Furthermore，thepapershallanalyzeitsfeasibilitythroughperceivingtherulesoflaw,Chineseeconomyandnationalpolicy．ThepapershallthenproceedtoanalyzethemainproblemsandrisksofBFinChinabyresearchingtheriskidentification，establishingthefeasiblemodelofde

7、cision-makingforlicensedtermaswellascomingupwiththencMtmethodofvalueevaluating．Hereinto，thepapershallmainlyevaluatetherisksoftrafficestimateinBOTprojectthroughthetheoryofBayesianinference，andshallcomeupwiththeefficientapproachtopreventBFfromuncertainrisksthrough

8、outaUstagesofproject．Infinal，thepapershalldiscusstheoperatingmethodsofBFinChinabasedonthecasestudies．Byanalyzingtherelevantdataandinformation，thepapershallthenproceed