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1、湖南大学博士学位论文市场运营环境下电力价格的动态演化及定价机制研究姓名：刘正军申请学位级别：博士专业：国际贸易指导教师：赖明勇;陈收20051101市场运营环境下电力价格的动态演化及定价机制研究的进一步发展和完善，采用边际成本法、拓扑分配系数法，进行输电、配电分开的定价，并根据湖南省电网的实际数据进行了准确测算。本文将电力市场的经济规律与电力系统复杂的网络特性紧密结合起来，研究了在市场运营环境下电力价格的动态演化和定价机制，以期为电力工业的监管和运营机构提供有益的定量决策依据及措施建议。研究结果对我国刚刚起步的电力市场化运营的健康发展，对经济学理论在具有大型垄断网络市场中的应用与拓展具有一定
2、的理论价值和实际借鉴意义。关键词：电力工业；市场运营；电力价格；动态演化；定价机制；II博士学位论文ABSTRACTWiththedevelopmentoftechnology,economyandsociety,thepowerindustrytraditionallyregardedasthatwithnaturalmonopolyfeature,hasbeenundergoingafundamentalmarketreformationofderegulationandcompetitioninmanycountries,inordertoreducethecostandpriceof
3、monopolyindustryandimprovethesocialbenefit.Inthemarketoperation,theelectricitypriceisacore,andthusitisaveryimportanttasktoeffectivelymasterandmanagethedynamicevolutionofelectricitypriceandrationallyestablishthepricingmechanism,especiallyforthepowermarketofChinawhosereformationisperformedjustnowandn
4、otmatureandperfect,itbecomesmoreurgentandnecessary.Inthispaper,withthehelpofthephasespacereconstructiontechnique,thechaoticfeatureofelectricitypriceinactualpowermarketisfirstlyanalyzedandverified.Byextractingthemainfeaturesofattractorsandusingthesurrogatedatamethod,ithasbeenfoundthatbehinditsseemin
5、glyrandomappearance,theelectricitypricefollowsdefiniteregularityandorder,andexhibitschaoticevolvingcharacteristic.Inordertofurtheranalyzethegeneralfeatureandlawofthedynamicsofelectricitypriceandmakeupthenon-universalityoftheactualevolvingcurve,thispaperestablishesthedynamicmathematicalmodel.Thegame
6、theoryofeconomicsisintroduced,andthentheCournotgamedynamicmodelwithboundedrationalityconsideringtransmissionconstrainsisproposed,whichisrepresentedbythedifferenceequationsinvolvingthemaximizationofsocialbenefitofmarket.Bymeansofthebasictheoryofnonlineardiscretedynamicsystem,theNashequilibriumandits
7、stabilityofduopolyCournotgameareanalyzedqualitatively,indicatingthatinpowermarkettherearedifferentNashequilibriumsindifferentmarketparameterscorrespondingtodifferentoperationalconditionsoftransmissionnetwor
