我国旅游需求侧的理论和实践研究

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1、河海大学博士学位论文我国旅游需求侧的理论和实践研究姓名：王（龙天）申请学位级别：博士专业：技术及经济管理指导教师：郑垂勇20060101AbstractInrecentyearstourismhasbecomeoneofthefastestgrowingsectorsoftheworldeconomyandiswidelyrecognizedforitscontributiontoregionalandnationaleconomicdevelopment．Inadditiontothegenerationoffor

2、eignexchangeearningstourismalsoalleviatesthebalanceofpaymentsproblems，createsemploymentandcontributessignificantlytowardstheincreaseofincome，savings，investmentandsocialgrowth．Demandandsupplyaretwokeyelementstotourismdevelopment．Butforhistoricalreasons，wepayspec

3、ialattentiontotourismsupplyandsupportsystem，andneglectthedemandsideoftourism．Uriderthebackgroundofthefastdevelopmentofworldtourismdemand，basedontheforil2erresearchesinthisfield，focusingonthestmctureandtendencyoftourismdemand，thecoordinateddevelopmentrelationsbe

4、tweentourismdemandandtourisminvestment，thisdesertionappliesthetheoriesandmethodsofeconomics，managementandmodemmathematicstodosystemresearchondemandsideoftourism．StructureoftourismdemandiSinvestigatedthroughthespecificationoflinealalmostidealdemandsystem(LAmS)mo

5、del．EstimatedparametersandelasticityCOefficientsareplausibleandconsistentwithdemandthgory．TheestimationresultsshowthatdemandsofChineseinboundtouristsindifferentprovinces(suchasBeijing，Guangdong，Jiangsu，etc．)arequitedifferent．neinclusionsofproductcharacteristics

6、／attributesintourismanalysisappeartostron出ycontributetowardsthebetterunderstandingoftravelchoicebehaviors．Wllilestudyonmetendencyoftourismdemand．twotheoreticalframeworksareproposed，whicharebasedonmodelofwaveletandgeneralizedregressionneuralnetwork(om,n,Oseparat

7、ely．Incasestudy,demandofTaiwan’SinboundtouristsiSresearchedthroughGRNNmodel．Asystemdynamicsroodel(SD．TDlljSbuildtostudyonthecoordinateddevelopmentsystemsoftourismdemandandinvestment．Thesimulationanalysissuggestthatthesystemissensitivetomanyelements，suchastouris

8、mpromotion，urbanization，overseastourisminvestment，interestrate，depreciationratechangesetc．Keywords：tourism；demandside；analysis；structure；；tendency；thecoordinateddevelopments