《ted演讲集》PPT课件

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1、HowToDoExactlytheRightThingareAllPossibleTimesorTheIdeaThatChangetheWorldNothingE(u

2、p,X)=∑p(x)u(x)E(u

3、p,X)=∑p(x)u(x)ExpectedValue=(OddsofGain)X(ValueofGain)ExpectedValue=(OddsofGain)X(ValueofGain)½X￥10=￥5Yes!ExpectedValue=(OddsofGain)X(ValueofGain)Errorsin

4、OddsErrorsinValueErrorsinOddsAretheremore4-letterEnglishwordswithRinthe3rdor1stplace?__R_R___RING,RANG,RUNG…DARE,BARE,PARK…ErrorsinOddsCauseEstimateTomado564Fireworks160Asthma506Drowning1684Per200millionUSresidentsperyearActual90618867380ErrorsinValueIIsth

5、isBigMacworth￥17?ComparingWiththePastinsteadofthePossibleErrorsinValue:ComparingwiththePast￥40KInYear3￥50KInYear2￥45KInYear2￥60KInYear1￥35KInYear1￥55KInYear3ErrorsinValue:ComparingwiththePossible￥￥33￥68￥99￥368ConclusionIfwe’resostupid,thenhowdidwegetonthem

6、oon?